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Bubble Watch: Warning Signs That The Everything Bubble Will Burst in 2018

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively […]


2 Charts That Might Define The Fed’s Jerome Powell Era

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we’ll add more […]


Stephen Roach Warns “Complacency Will Be Tested In 2018”

Authored by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate, Despite seemingly robust indicators, the world economy may not be nearly as resilient to shocks and systemic challenges as the consensus view seems to believe. In particular, the absence of a classic vigorous rebound from the Great Recession means that the global economy never recouped the growth lost […]


ECB Unveils New, Higher Inflation Forecasts; Pushes Bund Yields Higher

While the rest of Draghi’s presser was uneventful, the two things investors were looking for were the ECB’s revised GDP and inflation forecasts. And while the first saw a modest improvement across the board relative to the September forecast as follows: 2017 at 2.4% vs 2.2% In Sept. 2018 at 2.3% vs 1.8% 2019 at […]


ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Sees Current Policy Stance “Contributing To Favorable Liquidity Conditions”

As expected, there was little surprise in the ECB monetary policy decision, which kept all three key ECB rates unchanged, and which announced that rates will “remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.” As it unveiled before, QE will run at […]


What To Expect From The ECB

Submitted by RanSquawk ECB Monetary Policy Decision Due At 12:45 GMT, 13:45 CET, 07:45 EDT, On Thursday 14th December 2017, Press Conference Due At 13:30 GMT, 14:30 CET, 08:30 EDT Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged.  As a reminder October’s announcement revealed that the Bank will be trimming […]


Pound Slides After BOE Holds Rates: Warns Q4 Economy “Slightly Softer”, Sees “Gradual And Limited” Rate Hikes

As previewed moments ago, the BOE decision was rather unexciting, and after its November rate hike – the first in a decade – which many speculated could be a “one and done”, the Bank of England unanimously kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected. The lack of dissenters meant this was the first time the […]


BoE Preview: “Should Be A Non-Event”

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the BoE meeting due in minutes, should be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Here is some more courtesy of […]


It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]


Asset Prices Are ‘Prices’ Too…

Authored by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute, We live in inflationary times. Some people might consider this statement controversial. This is because these days inflation is widely understood as a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) of more than 2 percent per year. However, there are convincing reasons to question this viewpoint. On […]


Gundlach Reveals His Favorite Trade For 2018

One day after Stanley Druckenmiller confessional to CNBC that as a result of central planning and markets that make no sense, the legendary hedge fund manager had a “terrible” year, and his “first down year in currencies ever” (he also said many not very nice things about bitcoin), it was Jeffrey Gundlach’s turn to confess […]


FOMC Hikes Rates As Expected: Expects 3 Hikes, Faster Growth As Two Dissent

With a 98.3% probability heading in, there was really no doubt the most-telegraphed rate-hike ever would occur, but all eyes are on the dots (rate trajectory shows 3 hikes in 2018), inflation outlook (unchanged), and growth outlook (faster growth in 2018), and lowered unemployment outlook to below 4%. The Fed also plans to increase its […]


Full Preview Of Janet Yellen’s Last Ever Rate Hike

In previewing today's FOMC decision, which will also be Janet Yellen's last rate hike decision and press conference before she is replaced by Jay Powell, there is a TL/DR version, which is summarized by the chart below and which shows that according to the market, the probability of a rate hike today is 100%… which […]


The Fed is Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic (the Iceberg Comes in 2018).

The Fed concludes its final FOMC meeting of the year today. The entire financial world expects the Fed to raise rates a final time. This will mark the fifth rate hike since December 2015, and the fourth of the last 12 months. Throughout this time period, the Fed has routinely stated that it is confused […]


A Question For Every Investor

Authored by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Recently we received the following question from a subscriber: “If a correction in the stock or bond markets comes, the Central Banks will buy stocks with printed money, like the Japanese Central Bank, etc. Will there ever be a shakeout of the garbage and junk in the system? […]