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Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In last week’s Technical Update, I discussed the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 2700 by Christmas. To wit: “The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the ‘smell of tax reform’ in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.   […]

Warning: Real Inflation is Already 3%… and the Fed Wants More!

While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%. The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November. Source: the NY Fed. […]

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

Tax Reform & The “Japanification” Of America

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Friday, Kevin Brady of the House Ways and Means Committee was on my radio program discussing the “Tax Cuts & Jobs Act” bill which was released later in the day. Here are the details of the release he referenced in the interview. Of course, the real question is how are […]

Three Charts That SCREAM “Inflation” In 2018

The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Running back to 2010, we’ve been in […]

CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Responds To The SRSrocco Report About The Silver Market: “Are You Ignorant Or Stupid?”

By the SRSrocco Report, The debate continues between the SRSrocco Report and CPM Group’s Jeff Christian on the fundamentals of the silver market.  After my article, in which I questioned the CPM Group’s exclusion of silver investment demand from their supply and demand analysis, Jeff Christian responded with a comment on my website.  I am […]

Morgan Stanley: These Are The 5 Cs That Will Shape 2018

Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics, who undeterred by Morgan Stanley’s dire credit outlook, is especially optimistic about the coming year, and in today’s Sunday Start writes that the bank’s key call for 2018 is that “the global cycle will stay stronger for longer” and explains that his constructive view is borne out […]

The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]

Venezuela’s Grim Reaper: Hyperinflation Started on December 17, 2016 and Continues Today, With Annual Inflation Hitting 4304%

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. A bolivar is worth less, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing today the world’s worst inflation.  As […]

Jeffrey Gundlach Warns “The Goldilocks Era Is Over”

Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com, Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer […]

Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]

Stagflation Signals Loom As Empire Fed Slides To 5 Month Lows

For the second straight month, Empire Fed Manufacturing survey disappointed expectations in December, tumbling to its lowest since July.   Under the hood are glimpses of stagflation as new orders slide but prices paid rise… and employment and workweek number stagnate (if not contract)… http://WarMachines.com

European, Asian Stocks Slide But US Futures Rebound As Tax Deal Fears Ease

U.S. equity index futures point to a higher open, having rebounded some 10 points off session lows with the VIX stuck on the edge between single and double digits, while European and Asian shares decline as investors assess central banks’ shift toward tighter monetary policy and concern over tax overhaul ahead of final plan.  It […]

“Everything’s Great!”

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, So much for that call. I thought there was no way Yellen would put her fingers in her ears, close her eyes, and shout “nah nah nah – I can’t hear you” to the speculative fervour that has gripped markets. Well, there is no way to […]

Inflation indicator wonders why the Fed is raising rates

The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time. Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level- CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), […]