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Pound Slides After BOE Holds Rates: Warns Q4 Economy “Slightly Softer”, Sees “Gradual And Limited” Rate Hikes

As previewed moments ago, the BOE decision was rather unexciting, and after its November rate hike – the first in a decade – which many speculated could be a “one and done”, the Bank of England unanimously kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected. The lack of dissenters meant this was the first time the […]


Morgan Stanley Expects A “Completely Flat” Yield Curve In 10 Months

Over the weekend, we presented an analysis by Citi looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors have before they should start worrying. As Citi’s Jeremy Hale noted, “sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX. […]


FOMC Signals Dovish Inflation Concerns, Warns “Sharp Reversal” In Markets Could Damage Economy

With a dumping dollar and collapsing yield curve since November's FOMC, all eyes are on the Minutes for any signals of The Fed hawkishly ignoring inflation concerns but instead a few Fed officials opposed near-term hikes (on the basis of weak inflation). Furthermore, several Fed officials warned of the potential for bubbles, "in light of […]


FOMC Minutes Preview: Beware A Dovish Surprise By A “Very Uncertain” Yellen

The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used […]


Fed Officials Push Radical Change In Monetary Policy As Powell Takes Over

Oh no…with the Federal Reserve in a state of flux as one Chairman prepares to step down and another (shock horror, who is not an economist) takes over, some of his colleagues who think they’ve found the “Holy Grail” of monetary policy are agitating for change. And, dare we say it, hoping it will raise […]


Fed Hints During Next Recession It Will Roll Out Income Targeting, NIRP

In a moment of rare insight, two weeks ago in response to a question “Why is establishment media romanticizing communism? Authoritarianism, poverty, starvation, secret police, murder, mass incarceration? WTF?”, we said that this was simply a “prelude to central bank funded universal income”, or in other words, Fed-funded and guaranteed cash for everyone. prelude to […]


BoE Deputy Governor Gives Crazy Speech Warning Markets Have Underestimated Rate Rises

On 2 November 2017, the Bank of England raised rates for the first time in a decade and Sterling’s initial rise was promptly sold off by forex traders as we discussed. The 7-2 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee was not the unanimous decision some had expected, while Cunliffe and Ramsden saw insufficient evidence that […]


India’s Sovereign Bond Market In Trouble As Inflation Rebound Surprises

Another day and another Indian inflation reading comes in “hotter” than markets expected. Yesterday, India’s CPI printed at 3.58% for October 2017 – its highest level in seven months – versus the consensus expectation of 3.43%. The September 2017 reading was 3.28%, itself marking a strong rebound from the recent low of 1.46% in June […]


Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops On Inflation, Rate-Hike Fears

UMich consumer sentiment declined from 100.7 to 97.8 in the preliminary November print, disappointing expectations of a small rise as anticipation of a pickup in inflation and higher interest rates weighed on the gauge. Even with the decline, sentiment was the second-highest since January, reinforcing other reports that Americans remain optimistic about employment and the […]


How Central Banks Widen Wealth And Income Gaps

Authored by Hal Snarr via The Mises Institute, The Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Consumer Finances, according to Federal Reserve Governor Brainard, shows that the share of income held by the top 1 percent of households has risen from 17 percent in 1988 to 24 percent in 2015, and that the wealth held by that […]


NY Fed President Bill Dudley Retiring

The Federal Reserve’s “smooth transition” from Janet Yellen to Jay Powell is set for a major speedbump. Just two short days after Donald Trump confirmed what weekly trial balloons had reported for weeks, namely that Janet Yellen is being replaced with most “dovish” alternative possible in the face of former Carlyle partner and 5 year […]


Bank Of England Hikes Rates By 25bps In 7-2 Vote; First Increase In A Decade; Pound Plunges

Over ten years since the last rate hike by the Bank of England in July 2007 (when incidentally, cable was trading above $2.00), and following years of market expectations of an imminent rate hike that failed to materialize… …. moments ago the BOE – which had telegraphed the move extensively in recent months despite some […]


FOMC Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Growth To “Solid” From “Moderate”

In perhaps the least anticipated FOMC statement in months – with expectations of no rate-change and normalization on path – all eyes were on inflation/growth wording. Some feared a more dovish Fed might upset the exuberant growth narrative that is embedded into equity valuations (but not the yield curve), but The Fed seemed slightly more […]


Previewing Today’s Fed Policy Decision

While normally Wednesday’s Fed meeting would be the week’s biggest market-moving event, this time – smack in the middle of the busiest earnings week of the year – it may not even make the top three, buried ahead of the coming news of the next Fed Chair (in which Trump is set to unveil Jerome […]


Previewing Wednesday’s Fed Policy Decision: The Week’s Biggest Non-Event

While normally Wednesday’s Fed meeting would be the week’s biggest market-moving event, this time – smack in the middle of the busiest earnings week of the year – it may not even make the top three, buried ahead of the coming news of the next Fed Chair (in which Trump is set to unveil Jerome […]