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The Reversal: “Smart Money” Using December Day Sessions To Dump Stocks

Everything changed in December… For months, the so-called "Smart Money" has been on-board with the incessant rally in US equity markets, buying every dip – no matter how shallow. However, since the end of November, a very different regime appeared to take hold. As a reminder, Bloomberg's SMART index is calculated by taking the action […]

Global Bond Rout Eases As Nervous Traders Watch For “Selling On The Tax News”, Catalan Vote

U.S. equity futures are little changed with the GOP Tax Plan now a done deal and no more daily “pricing in” of tax reform possible, as traders nerviously look to see if others will now be “selling the news”, a preview of which we got yesterday when US equity indexes closed red across the board […]

Core Consumer Price Growth Comes In Cold – Apparel Prices Plunge Most Since 1998

Following producer prices' surge in November, consumer prices rose 2.2% YoY (as expected). October producer price pushed to its highest since Dec 2011 but consumer prices are not being pushed higher for now… The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase; indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used […]

US Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 6 Years As Payday Loan Demand Soars

US Producer Prices beat across the board this morning with the biggest headline being a 3.1% YoY surge in Final Demand – the biggest jump since Dec 2011.   The index for final demand goods jumped 1.0 percent in November, the largest advance since a 1.0-percent increase in January. Over three-fourths of the broad-based November […]

SocGen Thinks Emerging Markets Are Breaking Down: Here’s Why

With Goldman Sachs publishing at least one, and in most cases two or more weekly reports urging its clients to keep pouring capital into emerging market assets, whether equities, bonds or FX, it is no surprise that Emerging Markets remain the big winners in 2017, up 10% points more than developed this year. However, as […]

Tax Euphoria Fades As Tech Rout Spreads

One look at S&P futures this morning reveals an unchanged market, however it is again the violent sector rotation that is taking place behind the scenes that is the real story, with defensive sectors real estate, retail, food, utilities outperforming while investors continue to bail and book profits on tech stocks after sharp gains since […]

Asian ‘FANG’ Stocks Suffer Worst Week In History

Representing a major segment of EM stocks, TATS are the Asian 'FANGs', and they just suffered their worst week on record. Taiwan Semi, Alibaba, Tencent, and Samsung are TATS and account for over 16% of the MSCI EM Stock index (considerably more than FANG stocks represent in the S&P). TATS have traded lower for 4 […]

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Tax Bill Chaos Erupts In The Senate

Markets were thrown for a loop in the past 24 hours, with the Dow first soaring nearly 400 points on Thursday on expectations that tax reform was a done deal, when drama emerged just after the close when the Senate tax bill came this close to falling apart when the proposed “Trigger” was ruled as […]

US PMIs Tumble To 4-Month Lows, Signal Just 2% GDP Growth

After reassuringly positive Eurozone PMIs, US Manufacturing and Services disapointed with the composite PMI slumping to 5-month lows in November. Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 54.6 (55.2 in October). 4-month low. Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 54.7 (55.3 in October). 4-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 53.8 (54.6 in October). 2-month […]

S&P Futures Hit Record High As European Euphoria Takes Over Forgotten China Rout

Yesterday’s China stock market rout, in which the Shanghai Composite tumbled the most since June 2016 to three month lows, and which prompted traders to question the dedication of Beijing’s plunge protection team, appears to have been forgotten, with the Composite closing unchanged on Friday after some early session weakness, as Chinese yields declined broadly […]

Europe Rebounds From Chinese Rout After Stellar PMIs; US Closed For Holiday

Nothing can keep the BTFD spirit at bay in Europe this Thanksgiving morning. Having started the session on the back-foot after the biggest Chinese stock market tumble in 17 months (the SHCOMP dropped -2.3%, most since June 2016) amid tighter liquidity conditions as a result of today’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US and attempts by […]

“Very Close To Irrational Exuberance”: Asian Equities Break Above All-Time High As Hang Seng Clears 30,000

Following the new all-time high in US equities, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index broke through its November 2007 peak to make an all-time high in Wednesday’s trading session. This was something we noted could happen yesterday in “SocGen: Asian Equities Are So Awesome, A China Minsky Moment Is ‘Manageable”. The dollar weakened slightly after outgoing […]

Futures Jump, Global Stocks Rebound From Longest Losing Streak Of The Year

After five consecutive daily losses on the MSCI world stock index and seven straight falls in Europe, there was finally a bounce, as investors returned to global equity markets in an optimistic mood on Thursday, sending US futures higher after several days of losses as global stocks rebounded following a Chinese commodity-driven rout.  The House […]

Global Stocks Tumble, Asia Plunges On Chinese Commodity Carnage

The euphoria of the past month has ended with a thud and BTFDers are strangely missing as the commodity chill out of China (which overnight became full blown carnage), has unleashed a global risk-off phase ahead of today’s critical CPI data, resulting in broad and sharp selling across global markets, as European stocks followed declines […]

London, France and Dow facing reversal tests?

  How Europe and France’s stock markets perform can have a huge influence on stocks in the states. The first two charts below look at the FTSE 100 from London and the CAC 40 from France. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The FTSE Index trend remains up and no single day action will change that. What does get our attention […]