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Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Is Renter Nation Dead? Single-Family Housing Starts, Permits Highest Since 2007

October's 13.7% MoM spike in housing starts was revised dramatically lower to just +8.4% which makes November's 3.3% rise (vs expectations for a 3.1% decline) somewhat less impressive. Building Permits dipped from recent highs. Northeast starts tumbled -39.6% and down -12.9% in Midwest, but jumped in South +11.1% and West +19.0% While both cohorts rose, […]


Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again… Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again […]


Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Today's single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it's a relic of your grandfather's economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]


What German Political Turmoil? Global Markets BTFD, Don’t Look Back

US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel’s failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel’s failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked “hot take” consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be […]


Housing Starts, Permits Rebound In October After Storm-Soaked September

Following September's storm-driven tumble, October has seen a big rebound in Housing Starts (+13.7% MoM) and Permits (+5.9% MoM) both beating expectations, as multi-family starts explode. Housing starts printed above all analysts' guesses (4 standard deviations above expectations) for the biggest monthly jump in a year.   The surge in starts was driven by a […]


Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October. And as […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


China’s Government Is Expected To Buy 24% Of All Residential Real Estate For Sale In 2017

Back in March, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth will keep rising. However, unlike the […]


Unprecedented Housing Bailout Revealed, As China Property Sales Drop For First Time In 30 Months

Back in March, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth will keep rising. However, unlike the […]


Global Markets Shaken By Sudden Equity Sell-Off: Hang Seng Crashes, VIX Surges

Has the market’s “melt-up” levitation finally ended? Of course, it could be much worse: as Bloomberg’s Paul Jarvis recalls, thirty years ago on this day traders around the globe were staring at their screens in disbelief as stock markets turned to a sea of red: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, […]