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Demand Tumbles For 5Y Treasuries As Tailing Auction Leads To Highest Yield Since 2011

After yesterday’s ugly, tailing 2-Year auction, it is probably not a big surprise that today’s sale of $34 billion in 5Y Treasurys was just as ugly. The auction printed at a high yield of 2.245% – the highest since March 2011 – and well above last month’s 2.066% largely thank to the recent Fed rate […]


“As Good As It Gets” – What A Difference 11 Months Makes

Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic, What a difference eleven months make. Shortly after Donald Trump was inaugurated he fired Michael Flynn. What’s become the conventional subtext is that the intelligence agencies have launched a “soft coup” against Trump, he has been significantly weakened, and the Deep State has scored a major victory. […]


Bitcoin Bloodbaths Most In 4 Years As Stocks, Bond Yields, & Bullion Bounce

It was quite a week… Dow, S&P up 5th week in a row VIX up Long Bond's worst week since the election HY Bond down 4th week in a row Bitcoin's worst week since Dec 2013 Gold's best week in 2 months Copper's best 2 weeks since election But cryptocurrencies made all the headlines this […]


Credit, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Stocks See Longest ‘Dipless’ Streak In 58 Years

As the yield curve rolls over again and credit crumbles, stocks just wanna go higher because… well that's what stocks do… Small Caps were squeezed higher once again led by Financials and Energy stocks (Utes weakest) – stocks were weak again into the close… (Trannies ramped to unch at the close) – weakness started around […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


US Yield Curve Crashes Most In 6 Years As Stocks, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs

What could go wrong?   Small Caps exploded higher today, driven by financials, presumably on tax reform hype.. but after Bob Corker said "yes" there was some notable "sell the news"… Notably, as soon as the cash market closed, futures ripped to the highs of the day…   On the week, Nasdaq (green) and Dow […]


Bill Blain: “I Have Never Seen So Many Extraordinary Events In One Year, And I’ve Been In Markets Since 1985!”

Via Bill Blain of Mint Partner, We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new MiFID regime – isn’t everyone? (US Readers…..) Our broad brush picture is a continuation […]


Bill Blain’s 2018 Outlook: “We Don’t Think 2018 Is Going To Be The End Of The World”

Via Bill Blain, It’s traditional to end the year with an outlook on what the next is likely to bring. We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new […]


Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Today's single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it's a relic of your grandfather's economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the […]


Strong 30-Year Auction Sets The Stage For Yellen’s Final Rate Hike

After yesterday’s stellar 3Y morning auction, and disappointing 10Y afternoon auction, today’s reopening of the 29-Year, 11-month RZ3 Cusip was right down the middle. The bond stopped at a high yield of 2.804%, stopping through the When Issued 2.808% by 0.4bps, the third consecutive stop through in a row. The high yield was above November’s […]


Treasurys Sell Off After Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction Despite Record Specialness In Repo

If the 3Y TSY auction which priced earlier was stellar, outperforming historical averages on every metric, then the just concluded 9-year, 11-month reopening of CUSIP 3F5 was mediocre at best. Stopping at a high yield of 2.384%, this was a 0.5bps tail to the 2.379% When Issued, and 0.7bps higher than November’s 10Y high yield […]


Stellar 3Y Auction: Highest Bid To Cover Since Sept 2015, Foreign Demand Surges

Unlike last month’s ugly 3Y auction, today’s just concluded sale of $24 billion in 3 year paper was stellar, stopping through the When Issued 1.934% by 0.2bps, a surge in buyside demand as the Bid to Cover jumped from 2.76 to 3.15, the highest since September 2015, while Indirect Bidders took down the most since […]


Tech Stocks Jump But Banks, Bond Yields, & Black Gold Dump

Tech stocks bounced today (perhaps on AMT chatter) sparking a chorus of confirmation-bias-based commentary that the bull is back… but we suspect that parrot is still dead…   Ugly night in Asian equities but it appears The National Team stepped in during the afternoon to save the world…   "It ain't cheap…"   Small Caps […]


Copper Crash And Yield Curve Carnage As Tech, Trannies, & TBTFs All Tumble

Today was a day in the upside-down: Banks underperformed Tech; High tax underperformed Low tax; Momo outperformed Value; Nasdaq outperformed S&P; and VIX down with stocks down…   While Nasdaq (green) outperformed on the day, and was bid at the open, Trannies (blue) underperformed; note that as Europe closed, everything rolled over….   Only Trannies […]


BofA “Is So Bullish, It’s Bearish”: Expects “10% Or Greater Correction” For 2018

Just two weeks ago, Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett came out with what was more or less the most apocalyptic big bank forecast for the coming year. In it, he predicted that the market would not only peak in the first half of 2018, and that there would be a flash crash […]