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Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears Of Joy, Or Just Tears?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Everyone who believes risk has disappeared has fallen for the con. Judging by this year's version of Santa Claus's reliable year-end stock market rally, risk has vanished, not just in stocks but in bonds, junk bonds, housing, commercial real estate, collectible art–just about the entire spectrum of […]


Someone Just Made $60 Million Betting That The Crowd Is Wrong

Over the weekend we warned that just as everyone was convinced that the yield curve can only flatten from here, and was positioned massively on the long side of the 30Y future, the opposite was about to happen, and in a tweet highlighting the record net spec long positioning in 30Y futures, we said “here […]


Wall Street Bonuses Set To Shrink Again This Year

Bankers were thrilled last year when Wall Street bonuses climbed for the first time in years after falling more than 15% in 2015. But unfortunately, even with equity markets around the world at record highs in 2017, volatility across asset class plunged this year – with the Dow seeing its least volatile year on record […]


There’s Never Been A Worse Time For A European Investor To Buy US Treasuries

Since the common currency's inception in 1999, the EUR-hedged yield 'offered' to European investors from investing in US Treasuries has never been worse… As Bloomberg notes, for European investors using swaps to protect against currency swings, the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield fell Friday on a euro-hedged basis to around -60bps. In other words, it costs […]


Kolanovic Unveils His 2018 Outlook: The “Frogs Are Almost Boiled” So Start Hedging

Barely two months after JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic previewed the next financial crisis, which he dubbed the “Great Liquidity Crisis”, and which would be catalyzed by the following liquidity disrupting elements: Decreased AUM of strategies that buy value assets Tail risk of private assets Increased AUM of strategies that sell on “autopilot” Liquidity-provision trends Miscalculation of […]


“Loonie Longs Are Set For A Painful Dose Of Reality”: Trader

Is all hell about to breaks loose for Loonie longs? Yesterday, Bank of America released a note titled simply enough “CAD longs at risk”, in which it said that “according to our liquid cross border flow (LCBF) data, hedge funds and real money now appear to be in the process of selling out of extended […]


Attention Derivatives Traders: Here Are “The Top 17 Themes To Remember From 2017”

Last week, as part of its must read 2018 Outlook piece, Bank of America’s derivatives team pointed out two particularly notable things: the first was BofA’s version of the (central-bank mediated) “feedback loop” diagram that keeps volatility record low and grinding even lower, as selling of vol has become a self-reinforcing dynamic, in which lower […]


BofA’s Derivatives Wizards Reveal “The Top 17 Themes To Remember From 2017”

Last week, as part of its must read 2018 Outlook piece, Bank of America’s derivatives team pointed out two particularly notable things: the first was BofA’s version of the (central-bank mediated) “feedback loop” diagram that keeps volatility record low and grinding even lower, as selling of vol has become a self-reinforcing dynamic, in which lower […]


Gold Hangs Above 2016 Low Despite BTC (Now in BitCon Futures), Brexit Deal,Tax Bill, and Fund Pukers

The only thing that truly trends is humans extrapolating their rates of return emotionally. Everything else will regress to the mean at some point.   Investors are being given a gift and do not see it. Every rally in stocks should be used to lighten exposure to a crash  and every corresponding dip in gold should be bought […]


The Moment The Market Broke: “The Behavior Of Volatility Changed Entirely In 2014”

Earlier today we showed a remarkable chart – and assertion – from Bank of America: “In every major market shock since the 2013 Taper Tantrum, central banks have stepped in (even if verbally) to protect markets. Following the Brexit vote, markets no longer needed to hear from CBs as they rebounded so quickly that CBs […]


Flynn Flush Rescues ‘VIX Elephant’ As ’50 Cent’ Backs Up The Truck

The “VIX Elephant” has awakened. And “50 Cent” is back. That's the mysterious-sounding ointroduction to a notable market insight from Bloomberg this mornig as they note the turmoil surrounding Mike Flynn headlines – spiking VIX and slamming stocks – provided two big options market 'whales' with some relief and room to move… First, the trader […]


Muir: “People Are Going To Be Wiped Out” By Short-VIX ETFs

Back in August, we highlighted a story in the New York Times about a former manager at Target who decided to try day trading with $500,000 he had saved up. Over the following years, he turned that into $13 million by following one simple strategy: Shorting volatility every time it spiked. As MacroVoices host Erik […]


“This Is A Paralyzed Market”: Hedge Fund Turnover Drops To All Time Low

Back in July, Canaccord analyst Brian Reynolds put out a contrarian piece which broke with numerous conventional wisdom norms about the state of the market, key among which was that traders are not complacent, but rather – in light of collapsing trading volumes, something which has plagued bank income statements in the past 2 quarters […]


Think Bitcoin Is A Bubble? Here’s Your Chance To Short It

Has the fact that the price of a single bitcoin has risen nearly eight-fold so far this year prompted you to turn bearish on the world's most valuable digital currency? Well, here’s your chance to short it.  A Swiss asset-management firm called Vontobel launched a new futures product on Friday that will make it easier […]