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ECB Unveils New, Higher Inflation Forecasts; Pushes Bund Yields Higher

While the rest of Draghi’s presser was uneventful, the two things investors were looking for were the ECB’s revised GDP and inflation forecasts. And while the first saw a modest improvement across the board relative to the September forecast as follows: 2017 at 2.4% vs 2.2% In Sept. 2018 at 2.3% vs 1.8% 2019 at […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Fed Balance Sheet Announcement

This week attention will fall on US FOMC rate decision, BoJ policy rate announcement, German and NZ elections. Economic data releases include PMI in the Euro area, retail sales in the UK and existing home sales in US. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in South Africa, Indonesia, Hungary, Taiwan and Philippines. BofA […]


Is Amazon To Blame The Fed Can’t Hit Its Inflation Target

It’s been a bad year for inflation forecasters: every month this year, economist consensus has expected core CPI to rise by 0.2% and every month since March, that figure has proven to be too high, resulting in 5 consecutive inflation misses and the weakest stretch of core inflation growth since 2010. Tomorrow’s CPI print, however, […]