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“As Good As It Gets” – What A Difference 11 Months Makes

Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic, What a difference eleven months make. Shortly after Donald Trump was inaugurated he fired Michael Flynn. What’s become the conventional subtext is that the intelligence agencies have launched a “soft coup” against Trump, he has been significantly weakened, and the Deep State has scored a major victory. […]


The Vicious Cycle Approaches: “We’ll Regress To (And Through) The Mean”

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com, Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception. My model going forward predicts the next recession is going to be a […]


China Admits To Fake Data (Again) – Hidden Debt & Inflated Revenues

It's not the first time (and it won't be the last), but a recent nationwide audit found some local governments inflated revenue levels and raised debt illegally, once again crushing China's credibility on the global stage when it comes to economic performance. As Bloomberg reports, ten cities, counties or districts in the Yunnan, Hunan and […]


“This is Groundhog Day”: Spanish Stocks Battered By Catalan Vote, Bitcoin Crashes

Spanish stocks and the euro fell, while Spanish government bond yields hit their highest levels in over a month after Catalan secessionists delivered an unexpected blow to the government of Spanish PM Rajoy by winning the Catalan regional election. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, U.S. equity futures and the dollar rose on the last trading session […]


Final Q3 GDP Revised To 3.2%, Highest Since Q1 2015

In the third and final estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy eased back fractionally from last month’s “hot” 3.3% print, and as a result of a modest decline in Personal Consumption from 1.60% to 1.49% (in the GDP calculation) as well as net trade, the final GDP print came in at 3.2%, down slightly […]


In Dramatic Reversal, China Gives Up On Deleveraging Pledge

Last week, when looking at the latest Chinese credit data, we made two troubling observations: first, China’s economic growth was slowing across a number of key data points despite massive new credit injected into the economy over the past year. Second, that the formerly massive credit impulse – which was responsible for pushing the global […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


Why We Should Worry About China

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute, Many of our readers might remember the late 80s. There were hundreds of movies, songs and books about the inevitable Japanese economic invasion. The ones of you that did not live that period can see that it did not happen. Why? Because the Japanese growth miracle was […]


Banks Demand 11th-hour Reprieve On Key Part Of MiFID II

The clock is ticking down and there are only about three weeks to go before the dreaded MiFID II regulatory structure is implemented on 3 January 2018. While it’s been difficult to judge the industry’s preparedness for the change, several aspects of the new regulations have attracted the most debate and concern. These have included […]


How GDP Became A Joke, In One Chart

For all the rhetoric about above-trend US growth, one month ago UBS shattered the narrative of surging GDP by showing just one chart, which revealed that excluding contributions from energy investment, which are about to hit a brick wall now that the price of oil has peaked and is reverting lower once again, US growth […]


UBS Is Using Ethereum Technology To Soften The Impact Of MiFid II

After devising blockchain-based systems to help facilitate equity and bond trading (remember Goldman’s cryptocoin?) as well as derivatives clearing, some of the leading banks in the blockchain space are banding together to build a system that they hope will help banks streamline another essential function: Compliance. According to CoinDesk, UBS is leading an Ethereum-based project […]


The 30-Years Bubble – Why America Ain’t That Rich

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner, The entire financial and economic narrative in today's Bubble Finance world is virtually context- and history-free; it's all about the short-term deltas and therefore exceedingly misleading and dangerous. So when a big trend or condition is negative and unsustainable, you generally can't even get a glimpse of it from the so-called "high-frequency" weekly, monthly and […]


These Are The 30 Biggest Risks Facing Markets In 2018

Once upon a time, Wall Street analysts had just two things to worry about: interest rate risk and corporate profits – virtually everything else was derived from these.  Unfortuantely, we now live in the new normal, where central banks step in every time there is even a whiff of an imminent market correction (as BofA […]


IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks’ Capital

The IMF released a new analysis on the instability stability of the Chinese financial system. Speaking to the media in an online briefing, some of the insights from Ratna Sahay, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, hardly advanced our knowledge much. Sahay noted that “Risks are large. Having said that, the […]


How Tax Cuts Will Trigger Recession

Authored by Patrick Watson via MauldinEconomics.com, According to the more cynical pundits, government programs usually achieve the opposite of their intended goal. And sometimes they do. For example, Richard Nixon’s “War on Drugs” is still in progress, but the drugs are definitely winning. Some government programs, however, are more effective. Firefighters are doing a pretty […]