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US Credit Card Debt Surges Above $1 Trillion, Just Shy Of All Time Highs As Student, Car Loans Breach Records

Earlier in 2017, using the latest – and soon to be revised – Fed data, newspapers and financial media reported that US consumer credit card debt had risen above $1 trillion for the first time since the financial crisis. Ironically, just a few months later the Fed revised its data series sharply lower, sending the […]

UK Banks Can Withstand “Disorderly Brexit” But Need Additional £6BN; $35 Trillion In Derivatives Affected

For the first time since it (belatedly) began conducting stress tests in 2014, none of the UK’s major banks need to raise additional capital. More importantly, the Bank of England and the system could withstand a disorderly Brexit. As Bloomberg recaps, "the stress-test scenario therefore encompasses a wide range of U.K. macroeconomic risks that could […]

Foreigners Splurge On US Stocks: Buy Second-Most US Equities In 8 Years

Last week we reported that in October, a record month in which Japanese stocks saw just one losing day in the entire month, foreigners bought a record amount of Japanese equities. It wasn’t just Japan, however, where the international community was busy buying. According to the just released TIC data, foreigner accounts, both official and […]

So Why Did Capital One “Suddenly” Exit Mortgage Lending??

Last week, Capital One Financial (COF) announced that is was formally withdrawing from the residential mortgage loan market.  Some observers mistook this announcement for news, thinking that COF had actually been engaged in residential lending in a serious way.  Housing Wire, for example, reported that COF had “suddenly” exited the mortgage and home equity business. […]

US Credit Card Debt Rises Above $1 Trillion As Student, Auto Loans Hit All Time High

Earlier in 2017, using the latest Fed data newspapers and financial media reported that US consumer credit card debt had risen above $1 trillion for the first time since the financial crisis. Ironically, just a few months later the Fed revised its data series sending the revolving credit total back under this “psychological number.” At […]

Dear Jay… You Have A Problem

It is said that the markets will test a new Fed Chair early on and judging by the fact that financial conditions just tumbled to their 'easiest' in 24 years – despite four rate hikes – Jerome Powell will have his work cut out persuading the market that he is serious (before this bubble bursts). […]

Trump Picks Powell To Be Next Fed Chair

According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has picked Jerome Powell to be the next Federal Reserve Chair. The White House has notified Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell that President Donald Trump intends to nominate him as the next chairman of the central bank, according to a person familiar with the matter. The president […]

Atlanta Fed Now Sees Q4 GDP At Blistering 4.5%

True to form, the Atlanta Fed – which has a habit of overshooting massively at the start of the quarter based on optimistic estimates only to ease sharply lower on its GDP “nowcast” as the “hard” data comes in – has unveiled its latest Q4 GDP estimate , which the regional Fed expects to print […]

After 16 Months Without a 5% Market Pullback, Goldman’s Clients Want To Know Just One Thing

It’s confusing to be a Goldman clients these days. One month after the investment bank reported that its Bear Market Risk indicator had jumped to 67%, a level it hit most recently before the dot com bubble crash and just before the global financial crisis and prompted Goldman to ask “should we be worried now”… […]

The Dollar Funding Shortage: It Never Went Away And It’s Starting To Get Worse Again

Very quietly, in the last few weeks, cross currency basis swaps (CCBS) related to the dollar have reversed their rise and started moving deeper into negative territory… again. This might not be of much interest to buyers of global equity markets at this point, but it is signalling ominous signs of growing funding stress in […]

Happy Black Friday

Amsterdam | As the financial world happily fixates on who will be the next Fed Chairman, I am in Europe celebrating the 30th anniversary of Black Friday, October 19, 1987. Three decades ago, I was on a trading desk at Bear, Stearns & Co in London along with David, Joey, Gregory, Peter and Paul, among […]

10 Years After The Last Market Peak, This Is How Assets Have Performed

As we pointed out yesterday, October 9 was a landmark day: it marked 10 years to the day since the pre-Global Financial Crisis peak in the S&P 500. How have various asset classes performed since then? That is the question that DB’s Jim Reid set off to answer this morning in his latest edition of […]

Macquarie: “Investors Are Mentally Exhausted Because They Understand There Is Nothing Normal In This Market”

In a note released this morning by Macquarie’s Viktor Shvetz, the bank’s stunned head of global equity strategy looks at what has become a “world without risk” and makes several observations, the key of which is absolutely spot on: “Investors are probably suffering extreme mental exhaustion. Historically low volatilities and risks, coinciding with high valuations, […]

Homebuilder Stocks Surge To Bubble Highs, There’s Just One Thing…

A key index of housing stocks has finally made it back to the highs of last decade’s bubble. As Dana Lyons explains, one of the, in some ways surprising, achievements of the current bull market in stocks has been its ability to resuscitate former busted bubble sectors once left for dead. For example, early this […]

Pennsylvania Will Run Out Of Cash Tonight, Leaving $860MM Of Bills Unpaid

As equity markets spike to all new highs with each passing day, the number of fiscal crises springing up within local and state governments around the country are reaching somewhat alarming levels, even if they’re being completely ignored by investors.  As Reuters notes this morning, the state of Pennsylvania may become the latest example government […]