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The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

Authored by Peter Tertzakian via OilPrice.com, It’s that time of year when we flip our calendars to a new start. For pundits like me, it’s customary to make a listicle about the year to come – the usual predictions about things like OPEC, energy consumption, commodity prices and electric vehicle sales in China. But I […]


China Systemic Risk: Liquidity Problem Surfaces At HNA Group Less Than Two Weeks After Company’s Denial

Here we go again… On December 8, we lamented how every few days we return to the subject of systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. We also noted how our chief source of concern had become HNA, after it issued a bond with less […]


Bank Of America: “This Is The First Sign That A Bubble Has Arrived”

Lately, fund flow data has all the credibility of a NYT presidential poll two days before the Trump defeats Hillary.  On one hand, you have Lipper reporting that investors pulled $16.2bn from U.S.-based equity funds in the past week, the largest withdrawals since December 2016. The same Lipper also reported that taxable-bond mutual funds and […]


The Running Of The Japan Bears

Authored by Nick Schmitz via Verdad Capital We’ve done a National Geographic–style deep dive into the world of the Japan bears, reading the scare stories about demographic decline, old people dying alone, underrepresentation of minorities on corporate boards, and other anecdotal “evidence” of stagnant economic prospects. We tried to find the best examples of Japan bearishness: […]


China Unveils Plan To Combat Trump Tax Reform: “We’ll Have Tough Battles”

With Donald Trump’s historic tax reform on the verge of passage, and with the Fed continuing its rate hiking cycle so far undeterred, and according to the Fed’s own dot plot still having another 7-8 rate hikes to go, China is getting nervous because, as the WSJ reports, it fears “a double whammy sapping money […]


The ‘War On Terror’ Has Cost American Taxpayers $250 Million A Day For 16 Years

Authored by Darius Shahtahmasebi via TheAntiMedia.org, The U.S. government has spent a staggering $1.46 trillion on wars abroad since September 11, 2001, according to the Department of Defense’s (DoD) periodical “Cost of War” report. As International Business Times reports, this amounts to $250 million a day for 16 years consecutively. The newly released version, published by the […]


Global Macro ‘Reality’ – The Hopium Vs Doomium Model Explained

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, When Reality and Sentiment Diverge The Hopium versus Doomium Model We are initiating the Hopium vs. Doomium model today.  I first came across the word Hopium in the aftermath of the financial crisis.  It was typically used by ‘doomers’ who believed markets were far ahead of themselves and […]


This Will Be The Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2018

In July, many were surprised to learn (even though we have shown this many times prior), that according to Credit Suisse analysts there has been just one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis: the corporate sector, also known as “stock buybacks.” Well, don’t change the channel, because according to Goldman’s just released forecast of […]


Goldman: This Will Be The Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2018

In July, many were surprised to learn (even though we have shown this many times prior), that according to Credit Suisse analysts there has been just one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis: the corporate sector, also known as “stock buybacks.” Well, don’t change the channel, because according to Goldman’s just released forecast of […]


Institutions Are Selling To Retail Investors At An Unprecedented Pace

According to the latest EPFR fund flow data compiled by BofA’s Michael Hartnett, the great “institutional to equity” stockholding rotation is accelerating, with another $8.8bn allocated to equities, more than all of it from retail investors, and another $5.8bn going into bonds, offset by a $0.4bn outflows from gold. Ironically, the one place where active […]


Bank of America: “The Best Reason To Be Bearish Is…There Is No Reason To Be Bearish”

Back in mid-July, Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote “The Most Dangerous Moment For Markets Will Come In 3 Or 4 Months” in which he warned that “further upside in risk assets will create problems later in the year” and concluded that “ultimately, we believe the extremely strong performance by equities and […]


Fed’s Asset Bubbles Now At The Mercy Of The Rest Of The World’s Central Bankers

"Like watching paint dry," is how The Fed describes the beginning of the end of its experiment with massively inflating its balance sheet to save the world. As former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, however, Yellen's decision today means the risk-suppression boot is on the other foot (or feet) of The SNB, The ECB, and […]


BofA: $2 Trillion YTD In Central Bank Liquidity Is Why Stocks Are At Record Highs

One week ago, in his weekly “flow report“, BofA’s Michael Hartnett looked at the “Disconnect Myth” between rising stocks and sliding yields and succinctly said that there is “no disconnect between stocks & bonds.” Why? The reason for low yields and high stocks was simple: trillions in central bank intervention. The result is an era […]


Finland’s Largest Pension Funds Dumps US Stocks Because “There Is No President In The US”

As President Donald Trump prepares to meet with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto in the White House on Monday, a portfolio manager at the Baltic state's largest pension fund has told Bloomberg that he will be trimming exposure to US stocks. The reason? “It seems as if there is no president in the US.” Risto Murto, […]


Matt King: Global QE And “ETFs Everywhere” Have Created An Unstable, One-Way Market

While the financial industry remains divided over what precisely is the cause of the malaise that affects modern markets, characterized by plunging volumes and trading activity, record low volatility and dispersion, a relentless ascent disconnected from fundamentals, and generally a sense of foreboding doom, manifested by an all time high OMT skew – or record […]