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What Is Behind China’s Bond Rout?

Until a modest dip in Chinese bond yields in the past two days, 10y CGB and 10y policy bank bond yields soared by 40bps and 70bps, respectively, over the last 2 months. In fact, Chinese government notes are headed for the worst selloff since 2013, with the 10-year yield surging 86bps this year to 3.92%, […]


Meanwhile… The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Remember Monday when stocks jumped and the yield curve steepened and every talking head and their pet rabbit said the bond market is about to explode… well the yield curve is now imploding again with 5s30s crashing almost 10bps to 64bps – the lowest since Oct 2007. False start…   The trend is jnot The […]


McCain Mania Sends Dow Soaring To Record Highs As Yield Curve Collapse Continues

The longest short-squeeze streak in history continues…   John McCain's "Yes" at 1051ET seems to have been the catalyst that extended overnight gains into melt-up mania… (Small Cap smanaged to scramble back green on the day as Trannies rose 2%)   But the Nasdaq remains red on the week…   Futures show the crazy moves […]


BMO Sees Risk Of Curve Inverting “As Early As March 2018”

Over the weekend, we published an analysis from Citigroup looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors “have to worry.”  The results were interesting: as Citi wrote, while sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, “where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX”, […]


You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions. Like now: Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum […]


Are Markets Really As Calm As They Seem?

Authored by Thorsten Polleit via The Mises Institute, Indicators for financial market "stress" have reached their lowest levels in decades. For instance, stock market volatility has never been this low since the early 1990s. Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no […]


Morgan Stanley Expects A “Completely Flat” Yield Curve In 10 Months

Over the weekend, we presented an analysis by Citi looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors have before they should start worrying. As Citi’s Jeremy Hale noted, “sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX. […]


The Yellen Put – Friend Or Foe?

Authored by Chris Whalen via The Institutional Risk Analyst, The term “Greenspan Put” was coined after the stock market crash of 1987 and the subsequent bailout of Long Term Capital Management in 1998. The Fed under Chairman Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates following the fabled event of default and life continued.  The idea of the Greenspan […]


Morgan Stanley Turns Apocalyptic On Credit: “A Cycle Turn Is Closer Than Many Believe”

While many have repeatedly warned over the past year that the record gains in credit are simply too good to stay – especially in Europe where yields and spreads have collapsed largely thanks to the ECB’s relentless purchases of corporate debt, with the central bank announcing on Monday it held a record €127.7bn in bonds […]


Chinese Stock Rout Resumes As Top Fund Sees “High Probability” Of Bond Carnage

In early November, we discussed how commentators were become disturbed by the sell-off in Chinese government bonds after the Party Congress, which saw yields rise to 4.0%. The anomaly was that yields in less-liquid, unsecured Chinese corporate bonds had barely moved. Some sleuthing on the part of the Wall Street Journal discovered that the most […]


“When To Worry?”: How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the […]


Chinese Stocks Plummet: Shanghai Tumbles Most In 17 Months As Bond Rout Spreads

The euphoria from the year-end melt up in Europe and the US failed to inspire Chinese traders, and overnight China markets suffered sharp losses, with the Shanghai Composite plunging 2.3%, its biggest one day drop since June 2016, over growing fears that the local bond rout is getting out of control. Both the tech-heavy Chinext […]


Blain: “Stop Worrying About The Yield Curve, Something Much Worse Is Around The Corner”

From Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners Stop worrying about the US yield curve – its a distortion. Something much worse is around the corner…. A bit of a feeding frenzy in the new issue primary bond market as 21 deals hit the screen and went fairly well. With Thanksgiving tomorrow […]


Asian Stocks Smash Records; Dollar Slides As Crude Surges To July 2015 Highs

Global shares hit another record high on Wednesday, propelled higher by what increasingly more call (ir)rational exuberance, and investors’ unflagging enthusiasm for tech stocks. That said, S&P futures are unchanged the morning before Thanksgiving (at least before the market open ramp), as are European stocks (Stoxx 600 is flat), despite the euphoria in the Asian […]


Yield Curve Crash Continues As Stocks Surge On Biggest Short-Squeeze In 11 Months

Ignore gold, ignore earnings expectations, ignore the dollar, ignore the yield curve… and…   German stocks sum it all up… Buy The F**king German Government Crisis… (even as EUR stays weaker)   Record Highs all around in 'Murica…   As once again the European Session (green boxes) cominated the ramp…   As VIX was slammed […]