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Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s A Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually […]


US Yield Curve Crashes Most In 6 Years As Stocks, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs

What could go wrong?   Small Caps exploded higher today, driven by financials, presumably on tax reform hype.. but after Bob Corker said "yes" there was some notable "sell the news"… Notably, as soon as the cash market closed, futures ripped to the highs of the day…   On the week, Nasdaq (green) and Dow […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Stoccks are at record highs on the basis that Marco Rubio might a 'yes' and John McCain will make it through the weekend… but if everything is so awesome, why is the yield curve collapsing? This is the 5th weekly plunge in the yield curve in a row – the longest streak since March 2016 […]


China Unexpectedly Hikes Rates Despite Disappointing Retail Sales Growth

China, somewhat unexpectedly, hikes rates this evening, minutes before dumping economic data that showed no major surprises other than a modest disappointment in retail sales growth. Of course, we had a suspicion that China might hike rates, as it has done in response to previous rates hikes by the Fed in 2017. So what time […]


Strong 30-Year Auction Sets The Stage For Yellen’s Final Rate Hike

After yesterday’s stellar 3Y morning auction, and disappointing 10Y afternoon auction, today’s reopening of the 29-Year, 11-month RZ3 Cusip was right down the middle. The bond stopped at a high yield of 2.804%, stopping through the When Issued 2.808% by 0.4bps, the third consecutive stop through in a row. The high yield was above November’s […]


Bond Bears Beware As Ag Prices Hit Record Low

Long-end bond yields are lower and the front-end higher once again this morning as the US Treasury yield curve continues to confound by flattening. Bloomberg macro strategist Mark Cudmore suspects there is more to come… for one simple reason, so often overlooked… Via Bloomberg, Cheaper eats are great, but maybe not if you’re one of […]


Bank of America: “We’ve Seen This Movie Before: It Ends With A Recession”

In a merciful transition from Wall Street’s endless daily discussions and more often than not- monologues – of why vol is record low, and why a financial cataclysm will ensue once vol finally surges, lately the main topic preoccupying financial strategists has been the yield curve’s ongoing collapse – with the 2s10s sliding and trading […]


Bitcoin Collapse, Equity ‘Flash Crash’, & The Fed Loses Control: Saxo’s ‘Outrageous Predictions’ For 2018

Via Saxo Bank: We’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sniffing out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 2017 was […]


Hartnett: Every Time Chinese Yields Hit 4%, A Crash Happens

In his latest flow show report, BofA’s Michael Hartnett finds that while inflows into markets in the past week continued, with $3.1bn going into stocks – of which $13.7bn went into ETFs, and $10.6bn was redeemed from active managers, $1.2bn into bond and $0.3bn into gold (unfortunately EPFR doesn’t track inflows into bitcoin yet), although […]


Is it “Late 2007” For the Everything Bubble?

Timing the end of a major bubble is extraordinarily difficult as it entails figuring out when a critical mass of investors shift from greed to fear. Having said that, we’ve recently seen a number of developments that would suggest we’re near the end of the current Bond Bubble. Back in June the world saw the […]


Copper Crash And Yield Curve Carnage As Tech, Trannies, & TBTFs All Tumble

Today was a day in the upside-down: Banks underperformed Tech; High tax underperformed Low tax; Momo outperformed Value; Nasdaq outperformed S&P; and VIX down with stocks down…   While Nasdaq (green) outperformed on the day, and was bid at the open, Trannies (blue) underperformed; note that as Europe closed, everything rolled over….   Only Trannies […]


CME Unveils “Weirdest Chart Ever”

Authored by Erik Norland via CME Group, We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance.  You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article about it?  Or, have they spent too much time […]


The Yield Curve Just Keeps Collapsing…

"probably nothing…" The Treasury yield curve continues to plumb new cycle lows with 2s30s now below 94bps and 5s30s testing below 60bps…   If the tax deal is so 'growthy' – why is the yield curve signaling degrowth? Who's right about growth? Bonds or Stocks? http://WarMachines.com


UBS Unveils Its Top 5 Themes And 19 Trades For 2018

Coming in a little late to the game, UBS today released its top 5 themes and 19 trades for 2018. Not surprising from the bank whose base case S&P forecast is 2,900 one year from now (with potential upside to 3,200), and who just told CNBC that “valuations are still somewhat cheap”, the bank is […]