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Yield Curve Collapses To 10 Year Lows, Stocks Stumble Amid “Unprecedented” Bullish Sentiment

Bonds and Bullion are bid and the yield curve crashed as the Santa Claus rally fails to appear for a second day…   Gold's gains are S&P's losses as the two converge for the month of December…   For the second day in a row, stocks went nowhere despite the promise of the Santa Claus […]


The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!! Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps – the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps – the biggest-single-day flattening […]


Is This The Most Important Chart In The World?

"This is possibly the most important chart in the world…" As 13D Global Strategy and Research noted: A breach of the top-line of the channel could signal a major reversal in the multi-decade downtrend in UST bond yields." So the question is – is an event engineered to slam rates lower, in order to avoid […]


Bad Santa Buys Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin; Rotten Apple Spoils Promised Stock Rally

This was not teh Santa Claus rally that everyone was promised…   All thanks to 'rotten' Apple… as analysts lowered iPhone X shipment projections for the first quarter of next year, citing signs of lackluster demand at the end of the holiday shopping season, and the company’s shares fell Tuesday along with those of some […]


Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]


Credit, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Stocks See Longest ‘Dipless’ Streak In 58 Years

As the yield curve rolls over again and credit crumbles, stocks just wanna go higher because… well that's what stocks do… Small Caps were squeezed higher once again led by Financials and Energy stocks (Utes weakest) – stocks were weak again into the close… (Trannies ramped to unch at the close) – weakness started around […]


Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]


Yield Curve Steepens At Fastest Pace Since 2008, Bonds Cheapest To Stocks In 7 Years

On the heels of near-record long speculative positioning, the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve continues to carnage, with yields at their highest since November's FOMC levels. The yield curve is steepening drastically – up 16bps in 3 days (the biggest percentage surge since Dec 2008).   30Y yield surging…   The yield curve […]


The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Small Caps Slammed And Bonds Bloodbath As Tax-Hopers “Sell The News”

Sometimes better not to play at all…   Bonds & Stocks both slammed lower today – the worst combined day since 11/9/16…   Trannies ended the day higher but the rest of the major US equity indices "sold the news"…Small Caps worst…   Futures show the excitement better over the last two days (not the […]


What The Yield Curve Says About The Timing Of The Next Recession

While most financial professionals would enjoy nothing more than to trade bitcoin all day long – after all it only goes up in the long run (for now), while bringing insane volatility with it – the reality for most is that they are confined to such boring, established legacy instruments as Treasurys, which rarely have […]


One Angry Trader Rages…”Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong…Go Wrong…Go Wrong”

As stocks do things they have never done before (in terms of gains and complacency), despite the "inexplicable" collapse in the yield curve (and slump in earnigs expectations), some, like former fund manager Richard Breslow, are growing frustrated with the farce. 2017 is on track to be the first 'perfect year' with 12 consecutive monthly […]


Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]