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The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!! Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps – the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps – the biggest-single-day flattening […]


Is This The Most Important Chart In The World?

"This is possibly the most important chart in the world…" As 13D Global Strategy and Research noted: A breach of the top-line of the channel could signal a major reversal in the multi-decade downtrend in UST bond yields." So the question is – is an event engineered to slam rates lower, in order to avoid […]


Bad Santa Buys Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin; Rotten Apple Spoils Promised Stock Rally

This was not teh Santa Claus rally that everyone was promised…   All thanks to 'rotten' Apple… as analysts lowered iPhone X shipment projections for the first quarter of next year, citing signs of lackluster demand at the end of the holiday shopping season, and the company’s shares fell Tuesday along with those of some […]


Yield Curve Steepens At Fastest Pace Since 2008, Bonds Cheapest To Stocks In 7 Years

On the heels of near-record long speculative positioning, the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve continues to carnage, with yields at their highest since November's FOMC levels. The yield curve is steepening drastically – up 16bps in 3 days (the biggest percentage surge since Dec 2008).   30Y yield surging…   The yield curve […]


Small Caps Slammed And Bonds Bloodbath As Tax-Hopers “Sell The News”

Sometimes better not to play at all…   Bonds & Stocks both slammed lower today – the worst combined day since 11/9/16…   Trannies ended the day higher but the rest of the major US equity indices "sold the news"…Small Caps worst…   Futures show the excitement better over the last two days (not the […]


The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Stoccks are at record highs on the basis that Marco Rubio might a 'yes' and John McCain will make it through the weekend… but if everything is so awesome, why is the yield curve collapsing? This is the 5th weekly plunge in the yield curve in a row – the longest streak since March 2016 […]


Gold Pops As Bitcoin Drops, Dollar Snaps Longest Win Streak Since Jan 2016

"Contained"…   Post-FOMC, Gold was the biggest gainer…   US Equities were holding to gains but tumbled in the last few minutes with the S&P turning red…   Nasdaq manged to hold gains after The Fed…   VIX was noisy around CPI early on and snapped higher into the close (breaking above the terrifying level […]


Strong 30-Year Auction Sets The Stage For Yellen’s Final Rate Hike

After yesterday’s stellar 3Y morning auction, and disappointing 10Y afternoon auction, today’s reopening of the 29-Year, 11-month RZ3 Cusip was right down the middle. The bond stopped at a high yield of 2.804%, stopping through the When Issued 2.808% by 0.4bps, the third consecutive stop through in a row. The high yield was above November’s […]


Bank of America: “We’ve Seen This Movie Before: It Ends With A Recession”

In a merciful transition from Wall Street’s endless daily discussions and more often than not- monologues – of why vol is record low, and why a financial cataclysm will ensue once vol finally surges, lately the main topic preoccupying financial strategists has been the yield curve’s ongoing collapse – with the 2s10s sliding and trading […]


Breslow: “The Answer To This Question Will Drive Just About Everything”

Having passed the first hurdle this morning (PCE did not drop further), The Fed's December hike is now locked and loaded, but, as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, at the end of the day, the real elephant in the room is if, when and how fast the big central banks shift toward policy normalization. […]


You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions. Like now: Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum […]


Morgan Stanley Expects A “Completely Flat” Yield Curve In 10 Months

Over the weekend, we presented an analysis by Citi looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors have before they should start worrying. As Citi’s Jeremy Hale noted, “sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX. […]


More Evidence BoJ Desperate To Steepen Yield Curve

Two days ago, we highlighted how Bank of Japan officials have been briefing Reuters about reducing its monetary stimulus earlier than markets had been expecting – around 1Q 2018 rather than later in the year. In particular, the yield curve control (YCC) is likely to be eased from the current target of zero percent for […]


Is This The Real Reason Why The Treasury Curve Has Been Collapsing For A Month?

A 'funny' thing happened a month ago. The Treasury yield curve suddenly started to collapse… despite gains in stocks and positive economi data surprises… the question is, why? Here's one possible reason why.. Originally submitted by GovTrader, TL/DR: Tax reform creates pension fund incentive to buy 30yr bonds NOW. Currently, the top corp tax rate […]


Now We Know Why The US 30yr Treasury Curve Has Been Flattening Like A Pancake – Pension Fund Buying And Tax Reform

TL/DR: Tax reform creates pension fund incentive to buy 30yr bonds NOW. Currently, the top corp tax rate in the US is 35%. It looks most likely that rate will drop to 20% when tax reform passes. If you are a corp with an underfunded pension fund, you get a tax incentive to fund the […]