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“Are Central Bankers About To Lose Control?” The WSJ Asks And Citi Answers

In an article published by the WSJ today, which was originally titled “Are Central Bankers About to Lose Control?” but after some shoulder taps was renamed to the far more neutral “Can Central Banks Keep Control of Interest Rates?” author Jon Sindreu looks at the current Goldilocks state of the market, in which global growth […]


Yes, Virginia, There Is A “Santa Rally”

Authord by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Yes, Virgina, There Is A Santa Claus Every year, at this time, I republish the story of 8-year Virginia O’Hanlon who asked the most important of questions. I encourage you to read it as it reminds us of the importance, meaning and the “Spirit” of the Christmas season.  *  […]


Will QE Be the Needle That Bursts the Bond Bubble in 2018?

If you wanted more evidence that Central Banks will stop at nothing to induce inflation, consider that yesterday Bank of Japan stated that it will continue with its QE program and with negative rates for as long as it takes to achieve 2% inflation. Mind you, Japan’s economy has just posted its SEVENTH straight quarter […]


Credit, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Stocks See Longest ‘Dipless’ Streak In 58 Years

As the yield curve rolls over again and credit crumbles, stocks just wanna go higher because… well that's what stocks do… Small Caps were squeezed higher once again led by Financials and Energy stocks (Utes weakest) – stocks were weak again into the close… (Trannies ramped to unch at the close) – weakness started around […]


What Bubble? Silicon Valley Homes Going For Nearly $2 Million Over Asking Price

If you’re still holding out hope that the following chart is anything but another massive housing bubble in the making then you should probably ignore the disturbing evidence to the contrary that we’re about to present below… Back in 2005/2006, one of the key signs that housing markets across the country were overheating was the […]


Venezuela’s Grim Reaper: A Current Inflation Measurement – Current Annual Rate 4651%

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. A bolivar is worth less, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing today the world’s worst inflation.  As […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


Is It 1999? 2007? Or Both?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In last week’s Technical Update, I discussed the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 2700 by Christmas. To wit: “The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the ‘smell of tax reform’ in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.   […]


Warning: Real Inflation is Already 3%… and the Fed Wants More!

While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%. The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November. Source: the NY Fed. […]


There’s Never Been A Worse Time For A European Investor To Buy US Treasuries

Since the common currency's inception in 1999, the EUR-hedged yield 'offered' to European investors from investing in US Treasuries has never been worse… As Bloomberg notes, for European investors using swaps to protect against currency swings, the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield fell Friday on a euro-hedged basis to around -60bps. In other words, it costs […]


European, Asian Stocks Slide But US Futures Rebound As Tax Deal Fears Ease

U.S. equity index futures point to a higher open, having rebounded some 10 points off session lows with the VIX stuck on the edge between single and double digits, while European and Asian shares decline as investors assess central banks’ shift toward tighter monetary policy and concern over tax overhaul ahead of final plan.  It […]


Dear Janet Yellen: Here Is Your Own Watchdog Warning About Financial Stability Risks In “Red And Orange”

In the most interesting exchange during Janet Yellen’s final news conference, CNBC’s seemingly flustered Steve Liesman asked Janet Yelen a question which in other times would have led to his loss of FOMC access privileges: “Every day it seems the stock market goes up triple digits on the Dow Jones: is it now, or will […]


Inflation indicator wonders why the Fed is raising rates

The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time. Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level- CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), […]


2 Charts That Might Define The Fed’s Jerome Powell Era

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we’ll add more […]


Pound Slides After BOE Holds Rates: Warns Q4 Economy “Slightly Softer”, Sees “Gradual And Limited” Rate Hikes

As previewed moments ago, the BOE decision was rather unexciting, and after its November rate hike – the first in a decade – which many speculated could be a “one and done”, the Bank of England unanimously kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected. The lack of dissenters meant this was the first time the […]