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On the heels of near-record long speculative positioning, the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve continues to carnage, with yields at their highest since November's FOMC levels. The yield curve is steepening drastically – up 16bps in 3 days (the biggest percentage surge since Dec 2008). 30Y yield surging… The yield curve […]
Sell the news… again… Nasdaq is now red on the week again… VIX crashed to 8.90 as cash markets opened… 30Y yields back at the Nov 1st FOMC level… Some are suggesting the extremely rapid long-squeeze in Treasuries is triggering Risk-Parity unwinds… http://WarMachines.com
Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, The political differences of today’s leading two parties are not over ultimate questions of principles. Rather, they’re over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice. For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing while pretending to […]
One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]
"Contained"… Post-FOMC, Gold was the biggest gainer… US Equities were holding to gains but tumbled in the last few minutes with the S&P turning red… Nasdaq manged to hold gains after The Fed… VIX was noisy around CPI early on and snapped higher into the close (breaking above the terrifying level […]
With a 98.3% probability heading in, there was really no doubt the most-telegraphed rate-hike ever would occur, but all eyes are on the dots (rate trajectory shows 3 hikes in 2018), inflation outlook (unchanged), and growth outlook (faster growth in 2018), and lowered unemployment outlook to below 4%. The Fed also plans to increase its […]
Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, An Astonishing Statistic As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the […]
In previewing today's FOMC decision, which will also be Janet Yellen's last rate hike decision and press conference before she is replaced by Jay Powell, there is a TL/DR version, which is summarized by the chart below and which shows that according to the market, the probability of a rate hike today is 100%… which […]
The Fed concludes its final FOMC meeting of the year today. The entire financial world expects the Fed to raise rates a final time. This will mark the fifth rate hike since December 2015, and the fourth of the last 12 months. Throughout this time period, the Fed has routinely stated that it is confused […]
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, The past three Fed Chairs before Yellen all had their own crisis to deal with. Volcker had the disaster of the early 1980’s as he struggled to tame inflation with double digit interest rates. That helped contribute to the Latin American debt crisis, and the subsequent […]
Hours ahead of today's "historic" final Yellen FOMC rate hike, CPI disappointed and traders are bidding bonds and bullion while dumping the dollar… The odds of two rate hikes next year just tumbled… Gold jumped and the dollar dumped… And Treasury yields are tumbling… http://WarMachines.com
Hours ahead of today’s “historic” final Yellen FOMC rate hike, CPI disappointed and traders are bidding bonds and bullion while dumping the dollar… http://WarMachines.com
After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]
After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]
Marvin Goodfriend is not a Fed governor yet, but it’s likely asking far too much to expect US lawmakers to block President Trump’s nomination. Unfortunately for the American citizenry, Goodfriend (not) has all the establishment credentials which will likely see the nomination rubber-stamped: economic advisor to the White House (1984-5), director of research at the […]