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Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


And So Begins The Rug-Yank Phase Of Fed Policy

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, The political differences of today’s leading two parties are not over ultimate questions of principles.  Rather, they’re over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice.  For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing while pretending to […]


It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]


Full Preview Of Janet Yellen’s Last Ever Rate Hike

In previewing today's FOMC decision, which will also be Janet Yellen's last rate hike decision and press conference before she is replaced by Jay Powell, there is a TL/DR version, which is summarized by the chart below and which shows that according to the market, the probability of a rate hike today is 100%… which […]


Stocks Rebound From “Bama Shock”, All Eyes On Yellen’s Last Rate Hike

After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]


How Fed Rate Hikes Impact US Debt Slaves

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, But savers are still getting shafted. Outstanding “revolving credit” owed by consumers – such as bank-issued and private-label credit cards – jumped 6.1% year-over-year to $977 billion in the third quarter, according to the Fed’s Board of Governors. When the holiday shopping season is over, it will exceed $1 […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]


Albert Edwards: “Here’s Why The Current Situation Is Even Worse Than The 2008 Crisis”

Back in May, we first reported that Goldman became the first bank to dare to ask if the Fed has lost control of the market, if in slightly more polite terms of course. This is how Jan Hatzius phrased it: “Despite two rate hikes and indications of impending balance sheet runoff, financial conditions have continued to […]


Meanwhile… The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Remember Monday when stocks jumped and the yield curve steepened and every talking head and their pet rabbit said the bond market is about to explode… well the yield curve is now imploding again with 5s30s crashing almost 10bps to 64bps – the lowest since Oct 2007. False start…   The trend is jnot The […]


Watch Live: Janet Yellen Makes Final Appearance Before Congress

With only three weeks left until her final meeting as chairwoman of the FOMC, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen today will make what's expected to be her final appearance before Congress when she delivers testimony to the Joint Economic Committee. The Fed was already widely expected to raise interest rates next month, but in case there […]


Morgan Stanley Turns Apocalyptic On Credit: “A Cycle Turn Is Closer Than Many Believe”

While many have repeatedly warned over the past year that the record gains in credit are simply too good to stay – especially in Europe where yields and spreads have collapsed largely thanks to the ECB’s relentless purchases of corporate debt, with the central bank announcing on Monday it held a record €127.7bn in bonds […]


Gold Has Been on A Tear All Year

Gold Has Been On A Tear All Year Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin         The way gold has been moving the past few weeks, it’s easy to overlook the 11% growth it is enjoying during 2017. As we move towards year end, we see gold has […]


FOMC Minutes Preview: Beware A Dovish Surprise By A “Very Uncertain” Yellen

The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used […]


FOMC Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Growth To “Solid” From “Moderate”

In perhaps the least anticipated FOMC statement in months – with expectations of no rate-change and normalization on path – all eyes were on inflation/growth wording. Some feared a more dovish Fed might upset the exuberant growth narrative that is embedded into equity valuations (but not the yield curve), but The Fed seemed slightly more […]


Dovish, Neutral Or Hawkish: Here Is Your Last Minute FOMC Cheat Sheet

As we previewed earlier this morning, today’s FOMC announcement will most likely be a snooze-fest, with consensus expecting the Fed to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00-1.25% as it continues to evaluate to what degree recent disinflation is temporary or persistent. As several trading desks have opined, the committee […]