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EU Triggers “Unprecedented Nuclear Option” Against Poland; Sanctions May Follow

Yesterday we reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron had publicly agreed to back Article 7 proceedings against Poland for refusing to comply with EU immigration quotas and changes to its judicial system. The only thing that was missing was the official triggering of the so-called “nuclear option” Article 7. On […]


Who Ya Gonna Fight? Landmark Treaty Signed To Create EU Army

EU leaders formerly endorsed the harmless sounding Permanent Structured Cooperation, or PESCO, pact on Thursday evening in Brussels. After the shock of Brexit, the goal of defence integration was revived by former military foes, Germany and France, supported by Italy and Spain, in a show of EU unity. A similar proposal was blocked by the […]


Brexit Moves To Phase 2 – Sterling Slides As EU Warns Talks Will Be Far More Testing

Following the humiliation of losing the House of Commons vote on Friday, in which MP’s took the final say on the Brexit deal from the executive, UK Prime Minister was in Brussels as EU leaders gave approval for Brexit talks to move to phase 2. At a dinner last night, she was applauded by leaders […]


It’s Central Bank Bonanza Day: European Stocks Slide Ahead Of ECB; S&P Futs Hit Record High

One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen’s final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world’s most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are […]


Stocks Rebound From “Bama Shock”, All Eyes On Yellen’s Last Rate Hike

After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]


EU Could Scrap “Divisive & Ineffective” Refugee Quota Scheme

The Guardian reports that EU could scrap a divisive scheme that compels member states to accept quotas of refugees, one of the bloc’s most senior leaders will say this week. The president of the European council, Donald Tusk, will tell EU leaders at a summit on Thursday that mandatory quotas have been divisive and ineffective, […]


Frontrunning: December 12

Parties Make Final Push Ahead of Dramatic Alabama Senate Race (WSJ) Oil hits two-and-a-half year high on pipeline shutdown, stocks take breather (Reuters) Alabama drama nears an explosive end (The Hill) Moore, Jones Expose Rural-Urban Divide That Defines Alabama Race (BBG) The Force Behind Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise: Millions of Asian Investors (WSJ) Austrian Explosion Rattles […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]


US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

U.S. equity index futures pointed to early gains and fresh record highs, following Asian markets higher, as European shares were mixed and oil was little changed, although it is unclear if anyone noticed with bitcoin stealing the spotlight, after futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on Cboe Global Markets. In early trading, European stocks struggled […]


Bitcoin Collapse, Equity ‘Flash Crash’, & The Fed Loses Control: Saxo’s ‘Outrageous Predictions’ For 2018

Via Saxo Bank: We’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sniffing out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 2017 was […]


UK And EU Reach Agreement Taking Brexit Talks To “Phase 2” As Irish Border Questions Linger

Early on Friday morning, the EU and UK negotiated a deal allowing Brexit negotiations to move on to the "Phase 2", which will establish their future trading relationship. The European Commission said it recommends to the European Council to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations […]


Sterling Soars After Britain, EU Agree On Brexit Divorce Bill: Telegraph

The Telegraph is reporting that British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the so-called ‘Brexit bill’, opening the door to a potential breakthrough in the talks this December.  According to the report, that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, “will be between €45bn and €55bn, depending on how […]


Cable Crumbles After Government Denies Telegraph Report On Brexit Divorce Bill Agreement

Update: That did not last long. Shortly after The Telegraph report hit the wires, AP reports that Brexit talks between the UK and European Union are continuing as officials played down suggestions that a deal has been reached on the so-called divorce bill.  Reports suggested an agreement in principle has been reached which would see […]


Irish Government On Verge Of Collapse, Could Impact Brexit

The Irish government was on the verge of collapse as it faced a vote of no confidence in the deputy prime minister by a party whose votes are critical for Prime Minister Leo Varadkar to pass laws (the government is a minority administration).  As Reuters reported late on Thursday, the opposition Fianna Fail party threatened […]


Putin Blamed For Poland’s Bust-Up With Brussels

Russia-gate blame-scaping is accelerating across Europe… and now it is being embraced by none other than European Council President Donald Tusk. In what is an unprecedented attack by an EU leader on a member state’s sitting government, Bloomberg reports that Tusk explicitly suggests the ruling Law & Justice party is merely a 'puppet of Putin' […]