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The View From 2017’s Bridge: What Clive Hale Learned This Year

Authored by Clive Hale via The View From The Bridge blog, As long time readers will know we do not put much credence in end of year forecasts; nor in fact forecasts in general; the Fed and the Met Office being stand out examples. As an alternative to what is going to happen in 2018 […]


Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

Authored by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz und Wirtschaft, James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has […]


Euro Area Inflation Unexpectedly Misses Despite Sliding Unemployment

The euro stumbled, dropping to session lows on Thursday after Eurostat reported that despite a welcome decline in Europe’s unemployment rate to 8.8%, the lowest level in 9 years, Eurozone inflation missed expectations, rising from 1.4% to 1.5%, below the 1.6% consensus expectations, reminding the ECB that Phillips curves around the globe remain broken and […]


Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks

Mario Draghi gave the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning in which he focused on the strong outlook for the Eurozone economy and how his monetary policy is playing a vital role. The speech was peppered with upbeat phrases and adjectives like solid, robust, unabated, endogenous propagation, resilient, remarkable and ongoing. […]


Is There Any Way Out Of The ECB’s Trap?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute, The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially risky. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. Despite the […]


Uh-Oh…Draghi’s Ammunition To Buy Italian Bonds Before The Election Is Less Than We Thought

Having successfully pulled off the announcement of the ECB’s “dovish taper” – where monthly bond purchases will be halved to Euro 30 billion from January 2018 – last month, a challenge for Mario Draghi in Q1 2018 has appeared on his radar. The ECB’s bond buying ammunition is slightly less than analysts thought and there […]


Global Stock Meltup Sends Nikkei To 25 Year High

The global risk levitation continues, sending Asian stocks just shy of records, to the highest since November 2007 and Japan’s Nikkei topped 22,750 – a level last seen in 1992 – while European shares and US equity futures were mixed, and the dollar rose across the board, gains accelerating through the European session with EURUSD […]


The $2 Trillion Hole: “In 2019, Central Bank Liquidity Finally Turns Negative”

In all the euphoria over yesterday’s “dovish taper” by the ECB, markets appear to have forgotten one thing: the great Central Bank liquidity tide, which generated over $2 trillion in central bank purchasing power in 2017 alone – and which as Bank of America said last month is the only reason why stocks are at […]


ECB Preview: Here’s What Draghi Will Announce Today

Today’s ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: Mario Draghi has signaled, and is widely expected to announce a blueprint of what the central bank’s QE tapering will look like beyond 2017, and while no actual tightening will be implemented – either via rates of asset purchases – […]


ECB Preview: Here’s What Draghi Will Announce On Thursday

Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: Mario Draghi has signaled, and is widely expected to announce a blueprint of what the central bank’s QE tapering will look like beyond 2017, and while no actual tightening will be implemented – either via rates of asset purchases – […]


What The ECB Will Announce This Week: A Summary Of All QE Tapering Scenarios

The main risk event in the coming week, in addition to a barrage of corporate earnings, will be the ECB’s long-awaited announcement of what the central bank’s QE tapering will look like. Conveniently, thanks to a trial balloon released on October 12, we already know the general parameters of this phasing out of monetization: ECB […]


ECB Reportedly Considering Slashing QE In Half In January, EURUSD Shrugs

Has Mario Draghi's 'leak' weapon lost its mojo? ECB officials are considering cutting their monthly bond buying by at least half starting in January and keeping their program active for at least nine months, according to Bloomberg who cites 'officials familiar with the debate'. Reducing quantitative easing to 30 billion euros ($36 billion) a month from […]


Euro Slides After ECB Releases FX Forecasts Topping At 1.18 In 2019

Having concluded that Draghi’s speech was on the margin dovish, not least of all due to Draghi’s parting shot at Euro bulls, saying that “nothing will derail ECB’s will to deliver inflation”, a refreshed version of “Whatever it takes”, the EURUSD has since slumped from session highs, and was back under 1.20, in fact filling […]