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Bitcoin In 2018: “There Will Be At Least 4 Crashes Of 40% Or More”

By Nicholas Colas via DataTrekResearch.com, When you see something titled “Bitcoin 2018 Predictions”, you are probably most interested in just one thing: “Where will it go?” So let’s start there, but then add some other observations on a variety of topics. #1: We expect bitcoin will trade for between $6,470 and $21,600. Here’s how we […]


Where European Populism Will Be Strongest In 2018

While the establishment may breathe a sigh of relief looking back at political developments and events in Europe – which was spared some of the supposedly “worst-case scenarios” including a Marine le Pen presidency, a Merkel loss and a Geert Wilders victory – in 2017, any victory laps will have to be indefinitely postponed because […]


“As Good As It Gets” – What A Difference 11 Months Makes

Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic, What a difference eleven months make. Shortly after Donald Trump was inaugurated he fired Michael Flynn. What’s become the conventional subtext is that the intelligence agencies have launched a “soft coup” against Trump, he has been significantly weakened, and the Deep State has scored a major victory. […]


The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

Authored by Peter Tertzakian via OilPrice.com, It’s that time of year when we flip our calendars to a new start. For pundits like me, it’s customary to make a listicle about the year to come – the usual predictions about things like OPEC, energy consumption, commodity prices and electric vehicle sales in China. But I […]


“This is Groundhog Day”: Spanish Stocks Battered By Catalan Vote, Bitcoin Crashes

Spanish stocks and the euro fell, while Spanish government bond yields hit their highest levels in over a month after Catalan secessionists delivered an unexpected blow to the government of Spanish PM Rajoy by winning the Catalan regional election. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, U.S. equity futures and the dollar rose on the last trading session […]


The Reversal: “Smart Money” Using December Day Sessions To Dump Stocks

Everything changed in December… For months, the so-called "Smart Money" has been on-board with the incessant rally in US equity markets, buying every dip – no matter how shallow. However, since the end of November, a very different regime appeared to take hold. As a reminder, Bloomberg's SMART index is calculated by taking the action […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]


Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again… Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again […]


Wall Street Bonuses Set To Shrink Again This Year

Bankers were thrilled last year when Wall Street bonuses climbed for the first time in years after falling more than 15% in 2015. But unfortunately, even with equity markets around the world at record highs in 2017, volatility across asset class plunged this year – with the Dow seeing its least volatile year on record […]


Ramaphosa Elected President Of ANC: South African Rand Soars 4%, Biggest Jump In 2 Years

Update 2: It’s all over, and the best case outcome is now fact, with Cyril Ramaphosa elected president of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress on Monday. CYRIL RAMAPHOSA ELECTED PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA’S ANC RAMAPHOSA GETS 2440 VOTES IN S.AFRICA’S ANC LEADERSHIP VOTE Ramaphosa victory threatens President Jacob Zuma’s grip on power after the […]


South African Rand Soars 4%, Biggest Jump In 2 Years On Imminent Ramaphosa Victory

Update: not so fast – according to News 24, a recount for the ANC presidency is underway, adding that “NDZ’s camp insisted on recount after she lost the vote, they say. That may cause the delay in announcement.” Update: a recount for ANC president is underway, say 3 sources with knowledge. NDZ's camp insisted on […]


Global Stocks Roar To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Global stocks and US equity futures roared upward to new record highs to start the second-to-last week of the year, boosted by optimism over a Republican agreement on the shape of U.S. tax cuts aimed at lifting growth; incidentally this is the 6th consecutive day that the “tax bill” has been priced in by the […]


Global Dollar Liquidity Shortage Explodes – Worse Than European Crisis

Very quietly, in the last few days, cross currency basis swaps (CCBS) related to the dollar have reversed their rise and started collapsing deeper into negative territory… again. This might not be of much interest to buyers of global equity markets at this point, but it is signalling ominous signs of growing funding stress in […]


Albert Edwards: “Clients No Longer Care About Overvaluation; They Are Concerned About Triggers And Timing”

“How do you know when an asset price rise has turned into a bubble?” That’s the rhetorical question Albert Edwards leads his today’s Global Strategy Weekly note, and responds that in the non- virtual world, valuation is often a good starting point. “A bubble can also be identified by the steepness and persistence of any […]