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China’s Raging Against Dying Of The Light (Or Why Peak Employment Is Imminent)

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, China's working age population is clearly defined as those aged 16 to 50 years old for females (55 for "white collar" females) and 16 to 60 years old for males.  China mandates retirement at these outer age limits.  Perhaps of some interest should be that this working age population peaked in 2011 and has […]

US Tax Cut and Rate Hikes Threaten China Currency

Authored by Valentin Schmid via The Epoch Times, Seven was the line in the sand. But the Chinese yuan never crossed that line vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. It only crept up to 6.96 yuan per dollar on Dec. 16, 2016, before starting an impressive comeback, down to 6.5 in the middle of this year. Last […]

In Dramatic Reversal, China Gives Up On Deleveraging Pledge

Last week, when looking at the latest Chinese credit data, we made two troubling observations: first, China’s economic growth was slowing across a number of key data points despite massive new credit injected into the economy over the past year. Second, that the formerly massive credit impulse – which was responsible for pushing the global […]

China Systemic Risk: Liquidity Problem Surfaces At HNA Group Less Than Two Weeks After Company’s Denial

Here we go again… On December 8, we lamented how every few days we return to the subject of systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. We also noted how our chief source of concern had become HNA, after it issued a bond with less […]

Yuan-Priced Crude Futures Could Arrive Before Christmas

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, After years of setbacks and delays, China may be days away from launching a yuan-priced crude oil futures contract to make its currency more international and challenge the dominance of the petrodollar. Many Chinese investors eagerly anticipate the start of yuan oil futures trading on the Shanghai International Energy […]

China Unveils Plan To Combat Trump Tax Reform: “We’ll Have Tough Battles”

With Donald Trump’s historic tax reform on the verge of passage, and with the Fed continuing its rate hiking cycle so far undeterred, and according to the Fed’s own dot plot still having another 7-8 rate hikes to go, China is getting nervous because, as the WSJ reports, it fears “a double whammy sapping money […]

China Systemic Risk: HNA Group Denies Liquidity Problem, It’s Only “End-Of-The-Year Tightness”

Every few days at the moment, it seems, we return to the subject of systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. Our main source of concern recently has been HNA, after it issued a bond with less than one year to maturity with the extortionately […]

Chinese Stocks Plunge Below Key Support, Global Tech Wreck Escalates

Asia's 'FANG' stocks are tumbling once again as the global tech wreck continues to escalate (TATS down 10% from highs). Taiwan Semi, Alibaba, Tencent, and Samsung (TATS) are down 7 days in a row and over 10% – the biggest such drop on record…   While Chinese bonds are holding back from their 4.00% yield […]

China: Systemic Risk Surges As HNA’s High Coupon Borrowing Binge Accelerates

In early November 2017, we returned to one of our favourite subjects, systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. In particular, we asked whether the extortionately high coupon of 9% on an HNA dollar bond issue, with less than one year to maturity, marked the […]

“We Witnessed The DPRK Missile Blow Up”: Cathay Pacific Flight Crew Observed North Korean ICBM Launch

Officials from Hong Kong's flagship Cathay Pacific airline confirmed that the crew of a flight from San Francisco to Hong Kong reported seeing North Korea's recent test of its most powerful ICBM conducted last Wednesday, according to the South China Morning Post. According to flight trackers, flight CX893 was over Japan when the missile was […]

This Cycle: It’s Not The Economy, It’s China, Stupid!

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I know everything is fan-freaking-tastic – with the tax reform bill and global synchronized expansion and all. I figure the last thing you need is some nattering naysayer throwing cold water on this unbelievable party, so I won’t. At least not for the short run. This […]

Tech Wreck Hits Asia – TATS Turmoil After FANG Flush

While FANGs cratered in US markets, the turmoil in tech stocks has spread to AsiaPac with Hong Kong down hard as TATS tumble to one-month lows at the open… Asia's "FANG"  equivalent – accounting for 16% of MSCI Emerging Market Stock index is TATS – Taiwan Semi, Alibaba, Tecent, and Samsung… All four names are […]

China Hits A Brick Wall: For First Time Ever, Record Chinese Credit Creation Fails To Stimulate Economy

Submitted by Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital We believe that exhibit 1 says a lot: it shows that despite a record level of new credit issued by China’s PBoC YTD through Oct. 2017 (which stands in stark contrast to government authorities continued statements that China is de-levering), China’s economic backdrop is currently experiencing: (a) monthly […]

The Blob? Inside The Murky Mirepresentations Of Alibaba

Via Deep Throat IPO blog, As many of you know, I've been off the grid in rural India for the last few weeks.  As I've also mentioned, I love my trips to India….I get a chance to regroup, reset, meet wonderful people and think about things I rarely take the time to think about.  It's […]

China Slashes Import Tariffs on Consumer Goods In Boost For Trump And Western Exporters

China announced it is slashing import tariffs on 187 consumer products starting next month. The Finance Ministry pointed to the cuts being concentrated in products in short supply domestically which, it believes, will prompt local producers to improve quality. The items in the list which, includes baby formula, diapers, electric toothbrushes, medicines, cosmetics, coffee machines […]