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Uh-Oh Canada!

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Oil from Canada’s oil sands is now selling at a $27-per-barrel discount relative to WTI, the sharpest difference in more than four years. Western Canada Select (WCS), a benchmark for oil from Alberta’s oil sands, has plunged in December, falling to just $30 per barrel at the end of […]

The 30-Years Bubble – Why America Ain’t That Rich

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner, The entire financial and economic narrative in today's Bubble Finance world is virtually context- and history-free; it's all about the short-term deltas and therefore exceedingly misleading and dangerous. So when a big trend or condition is negative and unsustainable, you generally can't even get a glimpse of it from the so-called "high-frequency" weekly, monthly and […]

US Trade Deficit Surges Near Five Year High Despite Sliding Dollar

The US trade balance surprisingly blew out in October, increasing from $44.9 billion to $48.7 billion, as unexpectedly exports decreased and imports increased despite the ongoing dollar weakness, missing estimates of $47.5 billion. October’s number was tied for the widest deficit going back to early 2012… … and marks a stark divergence with the recent […]

WTI/RBOB Slide After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw, New Record High Production

With WTI at its highest since July 2015, vol at 8mo lows, and the front-end flipped into backwardation for the first time since Nov 2014, it appears a lot of hope is priced into continued equlilibration (and OPEC). Last night's API (crude draw) provided some more confirmation but this morning's DOE data disappointed with a […]

BoC’s Poloz Just Pulled A Full Trichet

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Remember when Bank of Canada Governor Poloz surprised the market with a second rate in early September? It caught the market off-guard as the market had priced in much less than a 50% chance of a hike. Here is the chart of the BAX futures and […]

Loonie Plunges After Bank Of Canada Keeps Rates Unchanged

After two rate hikes earlier in the year, once in July and an unexpected rate hike in September, the Bank of Canada decided to tread lightly, and kept its overnight rate at 1%, as everyone expected stating that "the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate" and changes its hiking tune, warning that "less monetary […]

IMF Upgrades Global Growth Outlook But Singles Out Britain As A “Notable Exception”

Confirming the shift to a more optimistic worldview by IMF unveiled last week by Christine Lagarde, in its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2017 and 2018 GDP growth forecast for the U.S., China, euro area and Japan as follows: Global GDP to expand 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in […]

US Trade Balance Shrinks More Than Expected As Deficits With China, EU Decline

The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.7% in August 2017, declining from a downward revised $43.6 billion in July  to to $42.4 billion in August, better than the $42.7 billion expected, as exports increased by 0.4% to $195.3 billion and imports decreased by 0.1% to $238.1 billion. This was the smallest trade deficit since last September, […]

WTI/RBOB Sink After Surprise Gasoline Build, Crude Production Rise

Amid record crude exports, DOE reported a surprise draw for crude inventories and surprise build for gasoline inventories which along with another rise in crude production sent both WTI and RBOB lower in the initial market reaction.   DOE Crude -1.85mm (+3.1mm exp) Cushing +1.18mm (+750k exp) Gasoline +1.1mm (-1.1mm exp) Distillates -814k (-2.05mm exp) […]

Rig Count Slumps To 3-Month Lows As US Crude Production Collapses

US crude production collapsed this week with most of Texas offline and we would expect rig counts to have continued to stabilize (if not fall) following the lagged track of WTI, and they did – oil rigs dropped 3 to 756, the lowest since June.   As a reminder, Crude production in the Lower 48 […]

US Trade Deficit Rises In July, Beats Estimates As Oil Imports Slide

The US trade deficit widened in July, growing by 0.3% from a downward revised $43.5 billion to $43.7 billion, and beating expectations of $44.7 billion, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion in July to $65.3 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.2 billion in July to $21.6 billion. […]

FX Week Ahead: Cue The ECB To Disappoint; Buying Time For Fed To Catch Up?

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdaily.co.uk After another 'interesting' non farm payrolls report, we start the week on a quiet note as the US observes the Labour Day holiday and Canada day speaks for itself.  Plenty of volatility to expect thereafter though, as it is the ECB's turn to manage market […]

Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As ‘Traders’ Panic-Buy Crude Futures

The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today's sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its […]