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Pair Of Bush-Era Economists Emerge As Front-Runners For Fed Vice Chair Position

After selecting Fed governor Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Fed Chair when her term expires in February, the Trump White House has now moved on to interviewing a series of candidates for the Vice Chair position.  As the Wall Street Journal notes this morning, two of the more likely candidates for that role […]


Is This The Most Important Chart In The World?

"This is possibly the most important chart in the world…" As 13D Global Strategy and Research noted: A breach of the top-line of the channel could signal a major reversal in the multi-decade downtrend in UST bond yields." So the question is – is an event engineered to slam rates lower, in order to avoid […]


Is Christmas Inefficient?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Mises Institute, After hundreds of years of attacks on Christmas, economists have finally gotten into the act. Yale University’s Joel Waldfogel, writing in the American Economic Review, condemns what he calls “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas.” Once you cut through the calculus and graphs, his conclusion is clear: though Christmas […]


Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives To Over-Consume And Over-Spend

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Isn't it obvious that if we set out to design the most perverse, toxic and doomed system possible, we'd end up with the Keynesian Cargo Cult's insane permanent growth/Landfill Economy? Few topics are off-limits nowadays: the personal and private are now splashed everywhere for all to see. […]


Proposed Legislation: Fannie And Freddie Are Here To Stay – There Is No Alternative

Since the US government nationalized the two GSEs in 2008 in a $187 billion bailout of the mortgage giants, there have been consistent calls for them to be wound down and for the private sector to fill the void. As we discussed, this view is, or was, shared by new Fed Chairman, Jay Powell. Mr. […]


Eight Axioms To Understand The Fake Economy

Authored by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners, What have we learned so far? Let’s spell it out as a series of axioms. Real money must be connected to the real economy of energy, time, and resources. Traditionally, gold makes the connection. (In the case of bitcoin, electricity is the connector.) Time, energy, and resources […]


Yield Curve Steepens At Fastest Pace Since 2008, Bonds Cheapest To Stocks In 7 Years

On the heels of near-record long speculative positioning, the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve continues to carnage, with yields at their highest since November's FOMC levels. The yield curve is steepening drastically – up 16bps in 3 days (the biggest percentage surge since Dec 2008).   30Y yield surging…   The yield curve […]


What The Yield Curve Says About The Timing Of The Next Recession

While most financial professionals would enjoy nothing more than to trade bitcoin all day long – after all it only goes up in the long run (for now), while bringing insane volatility with it – the reality for most is that they are confined to such boring, established legacy instruments as Treasurys, which rarely have […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s A Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually […]


Nobel Laureate ‘Discovers’ Cause Of Opioid Crisis: Complete Economic Destruction Of The “White Working Class”

For several decades now the American Midwest has suffered from unprecedented economic decay courtesy of a persistent outsourcing of manufacturing jobs in the automotive and steel industries, among others. As we’ve noted frequently, that economic decay has resulted in a devastating surge in opioid overdoses that claim the lives of 100s of people each year. […]


Watch Live: Janet Yellen’s Last FOMC Press Conference

Grab your handkerchief, it’s gonna be a tear-jerker. Having managed to get through her term as Fed Chair without a ‘crisis’, unlike her three previous colleagues, it would appear Janet Yellen has managed to jump ship at the perfect time. Will she leave her last press conference with a ‘hanging chad’ of uncertainty about extreme […]


How Fed Rate Hikes Impact US Debt Slaves

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, But savers are still getting shafted. Outstanding “revolving credit” owed by consumers – such as bank-issued and private-label credit cards – jumped 6.1% year-over-year to $977 billion in the third quarter, according to the Fed’s Board of Governors. When the holiday shopping season is over, it will exceed $1 […]


Bitcoin Hyper-Deflation, Gold and Silver Report 10 Dec 2017

A meme we have seen in the bitcoin community seems to be gaining traction. Bitcoin is deflationary. That is prices of things, measured in bitcoin, are falling. For example, in spring 2011, gasoline was ?1.00. This week, that same gallon had fallen to ?0.0001875. Gas has gone down by 99.98 percent! We don’t think that […]


Bill Gross: “The Financial System As We Know It Can Be At Risk”

In his latest monthly investment outlook, Janus Henderson's Bill Gross takes a trip to the dark side of monetary machinations and examines the signals (from credit, yield curves, and bitcoin) to comprehend how long this 'dance' can continue, "until the system itself breaks down." 1. Prior market tops (1987, 2000, 2007, etc.) allowed asset managers to […]