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The Vicious Cycle Approaches: “We’ll Regress To (And Through) The Mean”

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com, Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception. My model going forward predicts the next recession is going to be a […]


Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives To Over-Consume And Over-Spend

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Isn't it obvious that if we set out to design the most perverse, toxic and doomed system possible, we'd end up with the Keynesian Cargo Cult's insane permanent growth/Landfill Economy? Few topics are off-limits nowadays: the personal and private are now splashed everywhere for all to see. […]


Morgan Stanley: These Are The 5 Cs That Will Shape 2018

Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics, who undeterred by Morgan Stanley’s dire credit outlook, is especially optimistic about the coming year, and in today’s Sunday Start writes that the bank’s key call for 2018 is that “the global cycle will stay stronger for longer” and explains that his constructive view is borne out […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


How GDP Became A Joke, In One Chart

For all the rhetoric about above-trend US growth, one month ago UBS shattered the narrative of surging GDP by showing just one chart, which revealed that excluding contributions from energy investment, which are about to hit a brick wall now that the price of oil has peaked and is reverting lower once again, US growth […]


Core Consumer Price Growth Comes In Cold – Apparel Prices Plunge Most Since 1998

Following producer prices' surge in November, consumer prices rose 2.2% YoY (as expected). October producer price pushed to its highest since Dec 2011 but consumer prices are not being pushed higher for now… The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase; indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used […]


US Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 6 Years As Payday Loan Demand Soars

US Producer Prices beat across the board this morning with the biggest headline being a 3.1% YoY surge in Final Demand – the biggest jump since Dec 2011.   The index for final demand goods jumped 1.0 percent in November, the largest advance since a 1.0-percent increase in January. Over three-fourths of the broad-based November […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Higher Wage Hope Hammered As American Worker Compensation Slumps

US labor productivity rose 3.0% QoQ in Q3, the biggest rise since Q3 2014.  Great news, right? Not so much, as the rise in productivity comes at the expense of the wages of the American worker who saw unit labor costs (wages) decline 0.2% (against expectations of a 0.2% gain) – down for 2 straight […]


Stagflation Looms As PMI Shows Surging Costs And Sinking Growth

Following Manufacturing's drop, the US Services sector PMI disappointed in November, falling to its lowest since June (as business confidence tumbled to its weakest since February). Average selling prices soared as growth slumped setting the scene for a stagflationary future. ISM Services confirmed this weakness, tumbling to 3-month lows. Of course, between Markit and ISM, […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


US Manufacturing’s Hurricane-Rebound Is Over: New Orders Sink, Costs Soar

The brief rebound in US manufacturing after the hurricanes appears to have ended as Markit's PMI dropped from 54.6 to 53.9 as new orders slowed amid soaring inflation. For once ISM Manufacturing also agreed with PMI – dropping to its lowest since July – with employment and export orders sinking. While new orders slowed, the […]


China Hits A Brick Wall: For First Time Ever, Record Chinese Credit Creation Fails To Stimulate Economy

Submitted by Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital We believe that exhibit 1 says a lot: it shows that despite a record level of new credit issued by China’s PBoC YTD through Oct. 2017 (which stands in stark contrast to government authorities continued statements that China is de-levering), China’s economic backdrop is currently experiencing: (a) monthly […]


David Stockman Slams The GOP Tax Bill: “Fuggedaboutit!!”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The GOP has become so politically desperate that they might as well enact a two-word statute and be done with it. It would simply read: Tax Bill! Actually, that's not far from where they are in the great scheme of things. The Senate Finance Committee's bill is a dog's breakfast […]


JPMorgan’s Outlook For 2018: “Eat, Drink And Be Merry, For In 2019…”

While the prevailing outlook by the big banks for 2018 and onward has been predominantly optimsitic and in a few euphoric cases, “rationally exuberant“, with most banks forecasting year-end S&P price targets around 2800 or higher, and a P/E of roughly 20x as follows… Bank of Montreal, Brian Belski, 2,950, EPS $145.00, P/E 20.3x UBS, […]