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The Seven Questions Goldman’s Clients Have About “Rational Exuberance”

In mid-November, just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title “Rational Exuberance”… … Goldman’s David Kostin decided that imitation was the sincerest form of unveiling a non-contrarian year-end forecast, and in presenting his revised S&P price target for 2018 of 2,850 – which accounts for GOP tax reform – “borrowed” the […]


Goldman Bets On “Rational Exuberance”: Unveils Its S&P Price Targets, Sees Bull Market Lasting Until 2020

Just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title “Rational Exuberance”… … Goldman’s David Kostin decided that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and in presenting his S&P price target* for 2018 (and 2019 and 2020), and has named his preview report the same: We footnoted price target, because once again […]


UBS Reveals The Stunning Reason Behind The 2017 Stock Market Rally

It’s 2018 forecast time for the big banks. With Goldman unveiling its seven Top Trades for 2018 earlier, overnight it was also UBS’ turn to reveal its price targets for the S&P in the coming year, and not surprisingly, the largest Swiss bank was extremely bullish, so much so in fact that its base case […]


Even Wall Street’s Biggest Bull Calls It: “Q3 Earnings Are A Sell The News Event”

How do you know stocks are a little overextended? A good indicator is when even the most bullish sellside analyst on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, whose year-end price target of 2,700 is the highest of all his peers, warns that stocks may see “pullback or consolidation” and that the coming earnings season may […]


Q3 Earnings Season Begins This Week: Here Are The 3 Things Goldman Clients Are Focusing On

It's that time in the quarter again: 3Q earnings season begins this week with Wall Street consensus expecting S&P 500 EPS growth of just 5% (3% ex-Energy), a sharp drop from the last two quarters (Q1 was+14% and Q2 +11%). According to Goldman's Davis Kostin, "solid economic activity coupled with a weak USD will support […]


The One Question Goldman’s Clients Are Asking This Week: “Where To From Here?”

Two weeks ago, Goldman’s clients were so worried about an imminent crash, the investment bank’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin enumerated no less than 7 reasons why, as Goldman itself admitted, “the question every client asks: Is an equity correction imminent?” As a reminder, the reasons – summarized – were the following: History. Many investors […]


“Peak PEG” – The S&P Has Never, Ever Been This Expensive

Authored by Francesco Filia via Fasanara Capital, Measuring the Equity Bubble In this brief note we discuss how, on some reasonable metrics, the S&P may qualify as the most expensive in history. When compared to potential economic growth, multiples on the S&P500 exceed even those seen during the Tech Bubble in 2000. To value the S&P index, […]


A Peak Above All Others

Authored by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “Valuations are still well below the peak of 1999” say the bulls. They are certainly correct from an absolute basis but we caution that the current level of market euphoria is in a league of its own when compared to prior peaks on an “apples to apples” basis. […]


After 100 Months Of Buying-The-Dip – Stockman Warns Of “Peak Crazy”

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning, Just call it Peak Crazy and move on. There is absolutely no reason for the stock markets to be at current levels, let alone melting-up day after day. The fact that this is happening is a measure of how impaired capital markets have become as a result […]


Stock Market Warning Siren Is Blaring

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, Are we blinded yet by the brilliance of corporate earnings? “Adjusted” earnings growth is 10.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to FactSet, based on the 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results. The energy sector was a key driver, with 332% “adjusted” earnings […]