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One Trader Reflects On A Bad Trade – The Never-Ending Grain Pain (And Whose Fault It Was)

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I have had some bad trades in my day. But lately, one call has been especially atrocious. For the past couple of years, I have taken stabs on the long side of the grain market. At different times, I have held various positions for different lengths […]


A Gift From The Oldies

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at I bumped into a friendly bloke at my local gym last week. Jim is his name. Jim tells me he just started because, and I quote, “my doctor says I’m going to die unless I do something”. Now, I assure you it doesn’t take a doctor to figure this out. One glance in […]


Hedge Fund CIO: “You Can No Longer Understand America Unless You Check Breitbart And Infowars Daily”

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asseet Management “When the smartest guys say we’re ninth inning,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone, “we’re 7th inning, maybe 8th.” The S&P 500 finished November +2.8%, its eighth consecutive monthly gain, a refrain last heard in 2007. Year-to-date the index jumped +18.3%, the forward P/E is 19. […]


The Dumbest Dumb Money Finally Gets Suckered In

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, Corporate share repurchases have turned out to be a great mechanism for converting Federal Reserve easing into higher consumer spending. Just allow public companies to borrow really cheaply and one of the things they do with the resulting found money is repurchase their stock. This pushes up equity prices, […]


Sweet melt up potential here says Joe Friday

Tis the season for Chocolate (Cocoa) to do well, will it repeat its historical pattern again this year? Below looks at the seasonal pattern of Cocoa from Sentimentrader CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Going into this period of seasonal strength, Cocoa bulls of late are hard to find and dumb money traders have established one of the largest […]


Why The Next Stock Market Crash Will Be Faster And Bigger Than Ever Before

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, US stock markets hit another all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 is nearing 2,600 and the Dow is over 23,300. In fact, US stocks have only been more expensive two times since 1881. According to Yale economist Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio – which […]


Extremes Are Everywhere

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, This past weekend, I discussed what appears to be the markets ongoing melt-up toward its inevitable conclusion. Of course, that move is supported by the last of the “holdouts” that finally capitulate and take the plunge back into a market that “can seemingly never go down.” But therein lies the […]


Human Traders Are Trouncing The Machines

The contemporary low volatility trading environment has been kind to actively managed equity funds – particularly if they piled into large-cap momentum stocks like Facebook and Amazon, which have been responsible for the bulk of this year’s rally. But while active managers have enjoyed three quarters of strong returns, quant funds – purportedly the future […]


Weekend Reading: Bull Market In Complacency

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With the market recently breaking above 2500, there seems to be nothing to dampen the bullish exuberance. The recent run, which has largely been focused on areas in the market with the most sensitivity to tax cuts, has exploded over the last two weeks to record highs. That explosion […]


Warning: Danger Lurks Here

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at Take a look at the volume of stocks listed vs. indexes listed going all the way back to the days of bellbottoms, loud hair, and orange wallpaper. Since 1995, the supply of stocks, particularly in the US, has been shrinking faster than Trump’s approval ratings. At the same time, the number of […]


VIX Options Volume Hits All-Time High As Stock Speculators Risk Record Amount On Continued Calm

A record 2.61 million options on the VIX traded on Monday, surpassing a previous peak reached in August. Shockingly, Bloomberg reports that the activity appeared to be led by one investor, who rolled over a massive bet on a return in market turbulence to the end of the year. Shortly after Monday’s market open, an investor rolled over a […]


Emerging Market Debt: Dumb, Dumber, And Dumbest

Authored by Jonathan Rochford via Narrow Road Capital, One of the classic signs that the credit cycle is nearing the end is that borrowers that shouldn’t be getting financed not only get funded, but get it at terms that seem crazy. I’ve recently written about the silly things happening in global high yield debt, Chinese […]


Speculative Positioning Is Back To Extremes

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In this past weekend’s missive I wrote: “So…Should I “Buy The F*$(@!# NOKO?” My best guess currently is – probably. But not yet.” “In our portfolios, we will wait for confirmation the current sell-off has abated before adding additional risk exposure to portfolios. In recent years, such market tantrums have been very short-lived and […]