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The Reversal: “Smart Money” Using December Day Sessions To Dump Stocks

Everything changed in December… For months, the so-called "Smart Money" has been on-board with the incessant rally in US equity markets, buying every dip – no matter how shallow. However, since the end of November, a very different regime appeared to take hold. As a reminder, Bloomberg's SMART index is calculated by taking the action […]

Dow-Poised to trade sideways for 21 months again?

As the Dow is quickly approaching the 25,000 level, some might find it hard to remember that in the very near past, the Dow traded sideways for 21 months! Any reason the Dow didn’t make any progress for over a year and half? Could part of the reason be a key Fibonacci extension level? Below […]

Dow Jones Megaphone pattern, bounce of new support

Below looks at the Dow Jones Industrials Index over the past 100 years on a monthly closing basis- In the early 1980’s the Dow used old resistance to become new support at (1), where a breakout and strong rallied followed. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The Dow looks to be using old resistance as new […]

White House Considering Mohamed El-Erian For Fed Vice Chair

In what will come as a big surprise to many Fed watchers, moments ago the WSJ reported that among other candidates, Mohamed El-Erian, former deputy director of the IMF, former head of the Harvard Management Company, Bill Gross’ former partner at Pimco until the duo’s infamous falling out, and one of the few people who […]


It appears the opening of the US equity market is an implicitly bullish event now as USDJPY was kneejerked higher, igniting momentum algos and sending The Dow green… because that’s all that matters! USDJPY…   Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P all green… Now that those stops have been run – what happens next? http://WarMachines.com

Stocks, Bonds, Dollar, & Credit Dump As VIX Jumps To 6-Week High

Well that escalated quickly…   "Not" a record high… Trannies were worst on the day (not off the lows) but Boeing, Goldman, IBM, and Caterpillar weighed on the Dow. NOTE – Dow bounced off unch from Monday.   All Implied Vols spiked today (S&P VIX topped 13 – above its 200DMA)…but then it had to […]

…And “Horrible, Unacceptable” GE Goes Green

Having tumbled 10% in the pre-open after massively missing earnings expectations and slashing guidance, panic-dip-buyers have stepped in and (thanks in large part to passive index buyers flooding into The Dow), General Electric is now green… "Kitchen sink" is the new no-brainer… as CEO call sit "horrible and unacceptable"   Dow-buyers helping out (and it […]

Big Blue Blasts Dow To (Another) New Record High As Chinese Yield Curve Inverts

Don't fight The Fed or The Machines… The Dow is now the 2nd most overbought in 22 years… 3rd most overbought in 62 years   Kicking off The National Congress last night, Xi's words did not manage to inspire the bond market as China's yield curve inverted once again…   But thanks to Big Blue's […]

Dow Fails To Hold 23,000 As Yield Curve Carnage Continues

The Dow is now up 17% YTD – crushing bonds and bullion – NOTE everything changed when China’s central bank decided that it would remove a reserve requirement for financial institutions trading in FX forwards for clients by cutting it to zero from 20% currently..   But let's not spoil the party! Dow 23,000…   […]

Dow Hits 23,000 – There’s Just One Thing

Just four weeks since The Dow crossed 22,000…but thanks to Goldman, Boeing, Caterpillar, 3M, and JPMorgan (accounting for over 500 Dow points), the mainstream media's favorite index just topped 23,000 for the first time ever…   With the Top 6 names driving 50% of the index's move…   However, it seems options traders ain't buying […]

Stocks Surge To Moar Record Highs But Taylor Chatter Spooks Bonds, Dollar, & Gold

Another day, another record high…   To begin – 'Murica, fuck yeah!!   North Korea headlines and 'John Taylor For Fed Head' headlines prompted some turmoil in FX markets, bond markets, and commodity markets… but stocks didn't even blink…   Trannies were worst with Small Caps clinging to unch but GS, AAPL, JPM, and TRV […]

Dow Jones Changes “Hoax” Index Divisor For First Time In 2 Years

For the first time in two years, the owners of the Dow Jones Industrial Average have changed the benchmark’s divisor, the number used to determine how moves in the share prices of individual Dow components affect the level of the index. The new divisor is now 0.145233969 from 0.146021281. With the new divisor, a $1 […]