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Why Monetary Policy Will Cancel Out Fiscal Policy

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Good cheer has arrived at precisely the perfect moment.  You can really see it.  Record stock prices, stout economic growth, and a GOP tax reform bill to boot.  Has there ever been a more flawless week leading up to Christmas? We can’t think of one off hand.  And if […]


How The Asset Bubble Could End – Part 2

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Read Part 1 here… Contradictory Signals Special antennae that help traders catch upcoming opportunities. Available from the same outfit that sells the soup-cooling spoon (Acme Inc).   There is just one more positioning indicator we want to mention: after surging by around $126 billion since March of 2016, NYSE […]


Dow-Poised to trade sideways for 21 months again?

As the Dow is quickly approaching the 25,000 level, some might find it hard to remember that in the very near past, the Dow traded sideways for 21 months! Any reason the Dow didn’t make any progress for over a year and half? Could part of the reason be a key Fibonacci extension level? Below […]


Industrial Production Disappoints In November – Remains Below 2014 Peak

“Recovery” is a funny word that seems to mean very different things to different people… Industrial Production rose just 0.2% in November (below the 0.3% rise expected) but October was revised higher from 0.9% to 1.2% amid storm reconstruction.   And so while The Dow Jones Industrial Average has ‘recovered’ its way to new record […]


Record Calm Stock Market Gets A Shock

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr, After a record run of muted movement, will recent volatility send negative shock waves through stock market? The recent uptick in stock volatility has some investors on edge (OK, it is mostly just financial news editors on edge). The truth is, while volatility over the past week has seen an increase, […]


The Moment The Market Broke: “The Behavior Of Volatility Changed Entirely In 2014”

Earlier today we showed a remarkable chart – and assertion – from Bank of America: “In every major market shock since the 2013 Taper Tantrum, central banks have stepped in (even if verbally) to protect markets. Following the Brexit vote, markets no longer needed to hear from CBs as they rebounded so quickly that CBs […]


Rig For Stormy Weather

  Rig For Stormy Weather Posted with permission and written by Gary Christenson, The Deviant Investor      What storm? The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) reached another all-time high. Interest rates in the U.S. are yielding multi-decade lows, some say multi-century lows. Trillions of dollars in global sovereign debt have negative yield and European […]


An Autopsy of Lowest Selling Pressure EVER: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA Futures DataViz

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)   Based on candlestick wick analysis and data across all three primary US futures contracts, there is less selling pressure than ever before. Not since xyz, not since insert year here… there is less selling pressure than ever.  But everything’s awesome, right?  Just BTFD, right? If ‘real technical analysis’ was […]


Stock Market Acceleration Reaches Terminal Stage

Via KesslerCompanies.com, Secular stock-market bullish trends tend to accelerate as they mature. The last three big bull moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average look very similar and suggest a near-term major correction. See below: DotCom Bubble: Global Financial Crisis: 'Everything' Bubble:   It's different this time though. http://WarMachines.com


Dow Dumped As Tech Spikes On Chaotic Open

Having ramped on Tax hopes into the open this morning, some relative chaos erupted as the first trading day of December opened… Dow was dumped at the open, S&P fell back red, and Nasdaq dumped and pumped… All major indices are back in the red… http://WarMachines.com


Dow Jones Megaphone pattern, bounce of new support

Below looks at the Dow Jones Industrials Index over the past 100 years on a monthly closing basis- In the early 1980’s the Dow used old resistance to become new support at (1), where a breakout and strong rallied followed. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The Dow looks to be using old resistance as new […]


What Happened To Cash Flow Growth: The Red Flag In Q3 Earnings

Listening to Wall Street analysts, or their financial press cheerleaders, one would be left with the impression that earnings season has been gangbusters, and the recent 2-3 quarters of growth are sure to lay the basis for a new golden age in which EPS rises at double-digit rates for years to come. There are just […]


The Difference Between GAAP And Non-GAAP Q3 EPS For The Dow Jones Was 16%

The last time we looked at the near-record difference between GAAP and non-GAAP Dow Jones earnings, we found that it had crept to a (virtually) unprecedented 25%. To be sure, that was exactly one year ago, when the economy was perceived as being in worse shape than it is now, thanks to the narrative of […]


Unbridled Exuberance…

Authored by James Stack via InvesTech.com, From public confidence to bullish sentiment to the normally mundane employment data, the U.S. economy and stock market are reaching historic levels not seen in decades.  Last month, consumer confidence hit its highest level since December 2000.  The percentage of bullish investment advisors recently touched lofty levels that were […]


US Industrial Production Jumps In October – Remains Below 2014 Peak

After August's shocking plunge in Industrial Production – assumed away as storm-related -September and now October rebounded notably MoM (+0.9% vs +0.5% exp)… as Manufacturing resurged 1.3% MoM – the most since 2010. However, excluding the effects of the hurricanes, the index for total output advanced about 0.3 percent in October, and the index for […]