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Doug Kass’ 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump

Authored Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, "The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been […]


Weekend Reading: Ignorance Is No Excuse

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The “tax bill cometh.” According to the press, this is going to be the single biggest factor to jump-starting economic growth since the invention of the wheel. Interestingly, even the Fed’s economic projections are suggesting that economic growth will pick up over the next two years from the impact of […]


No Risk Of Recession?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Review I have been traveling a lot the last couple of weeks, so a big “Thank You” goes to Michael Lebowitz for “pinch hitting” for me. This week, I just want to review a couple of things as we begin to wrap up 2017. Earlier this week, I wrote a […]


Weekend Reading: Recession Risk Hidden In Tax Bill

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since the election, equity bulls have been pinning their hopes on “tax cuts” as the needed injection to support currently elevated stock prices. Stocks have advanced sharply since the election on these expectations, and while earnings have recovered, primarily due to the rise in oil prices, whatever economic growth […]


Citi Tumbles After CFO Warns Of $20 Billion Charge If Senate Tax Bill Passes

Citi stock tumbled, closing at session lows after the bank’s CFO John Gerspach  confirmed that the trading woes plaguing other banks would impact it as well, previewing Q4 trading as down “in the high teens.” The percentage decline in trading revenue from a year earlier is largely driven by the bank’s fixed-income unit, Gerspach said […]


Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since the election, markets have accelerated the pace of the advance as shown in the chart below. The advance has had two main story lines to support the bullish narrative. It’s an earnings recovery story, and; It’s all about tax cuts. There is much to debate about the earnings […]


Market Goes ‘Full Bitcoin’

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Market Review What the “heck” was that? This past week seemed to be the story of Christmas coming early. Earlier this week the markets surged higher on hopes that “Ole’ St. Tax Cuts” would soon be here. But that dream seemed to be short-lived on Friday, at least at […]


Weekend Reading: Keeping You Awake At Night

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In her last testimony before Congress as head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen made a curious statement: “I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory. Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it’s also […]


The Mean-Reverting History Of Profit Growth

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns. Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting […]


Weekend Reading: You Have Been Warned

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index […]


It’s A ‘Turkey’ Market

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, With Thanksgiving week rapidly approaching, I thought it was an apropos time to discuss what I am now calling a “Turkey” market. What’s a “Turkey” market?  Nassim Taleb summed it up well in his 2007 book “The Black Swan.” “Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single […]


Weekend Reading: It’s The Debt, Stupid

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As I noted last Friday, the recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated: “Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, […]


Bond Bears & Why Rates Won’t Rise

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Here we go again… Since June of 2013, I have been writing about the reasons why rates can’t rise much and why calls for the end of the “bond bull market” remain wrong. Regardless, about every 3-months or so, there is a tick up in rates and you can […]


Weekend Reading: Will Tax Reform Deliver As Expected?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As I noted last Friday, the recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated: “Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, […]


Weekend Reading: Markets Love Central Banks – No Matter What They Do

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I discussed yesterday, the apparent “myth” of the Fed’s proposed “balance sheet reduction” program as the most recent analysis shows a $13.5 billion “reinvestment” into their balance sheet which has helped fuel the recent market advance. But therein lies the potential “fatal flaw” of the “bullish logic.”  At the […]