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Why Monetary Policy Will Cancel Out Fiscal Policy

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Good cheer has arrived at precisely the perfect moment.  You can really see it.  Record stock prices, stout economic growth, and a GOP tax reform bill to boot.  Has there ever been a more flawless week leading up to Christmas? We can’t think of one off hand.  And if […]

The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]

Markets Are Unprepared For A Government Shutdown

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, Will Republicans and Democrats agree on a budget, and avoid a government shutdown after midnight Friday? I’d say the odds are 50/50. Actually, I put the odds of a shutdown at about 55%. There’s certainly enough substance here to be wary. The government could shut down because […]

Three Critical Dates For The Fed

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, I managed a track and field in team in high school. I was not the team coach, I was a student-manager who helped out with equipment, scheduling, training and other logistics. Back in the days before internet I was the kid in the locker room phoning in athlete times […]

Q3 GDP Revised Up To 3.3%, Highest In 3 Years

After the BEA estimated that US GDP rose an already impressive 3.0% in Q3, moments ago the Department of Commerce revised its estimate for third quarter growth to 3.3% annualized, higher than the 3.2% print expected, the highest since the third quarter of 2014. On a Y/Y basis, GDP rose by 2.3%, the highest since […]

How FDR Politicized Thanksgiving

Authored by Tho Bishop via Mises Canada, Call me old-fashioned, but one thing I am always thankful for every Thanksgiving is the blessing of not having Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the White House. After all, of all the heroes of the American progressive movement, few have quite the record of sins as FDR. The man routinely […]

Trump Receives Hero’s Welcome In Beijing As Chinese Roll Out The Red Carpet

Ever since President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping shared a slice of chocolate cake at Mar-a-Lago in April, many have speculated about the burgeoning “bromance” between two of the world’s most powerful men. Well, if anybody had any doubts about thelr “special relationship”, the opulent welcome that the Trump’s received upon landing in […]

Wilbur Ross Responds To Accusations He Hid Ties To Putin-Linked Firm

After the latest offshore tax investigative bombshell called the “Paradise Papers” – a sequel to last year’s Panama Papers – revealed yesterday that Trump’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross had indirect business ties with two Russian oligarchs, as well as Vladimir Putin’s son-in-law, the secretary who has found himself in hot water over more alleged backroom […]

Paradise Papers: Massive New Leak Exposes Tax-Haven Secrets, Links Wilbur Ross To Russia

One year after the Panama Papers revealed billions in assets are held in offshore "tax haven" accounts by some of the world's most powerful and wealthy individuals, on Sunday a huge new leak of financial documents disclosed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) – a global network that won the Pulitzer Prize this […]

What Americans Spent The Most Money On In The Third Quarter

One quarter after Americans unexpectedly spluged on recreational vehicles (and, more predictably, healthcare) US spending has returned to a more normal pattern in Q3. As we hinted at the end of August in “Harvey’s Destruction May Have Solved The Auto Industry’s Inventory Problem“, whether due to hurricanes or not, according to the BEA, which admitted […]

Airbus Takes On Boeing By Striking Deal For Bombardier Ownership Stake

Boeing's battle to crush Bombardier has encountered an unexpected obstacle. Bloomberg reports that Airbus SE has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Bombardier Inc.’s C Series program, which the Commerce Department slapped with a 300% tariff it ruled in Boeing’s favor in a complaint alleging Bombardier had benefited from anti-competitive government subsidies. Under the […]

Storm-Impacted Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Biggest Spike Since March 2015

Following August's slump (worst since Jan '16), September's retail sales data was expected to surge 1.7% MoM (thanks in large part to the spike in auto sales) but it disappointed with a 1.6% spike (still the most since March 2015). U.S. retail sales jumped last month by the most in more than two years as […]

Trade Wars Escalate: Trump Admin Hikes Tariffs On Bombardier To 300%

In a decision that's bound to infuriate the leaders of Canada and the UK, the US Commerce Department on Friday tacked on an additional 80% tariff against Bombardier C-Series Jets imported from the US's northern neighbor, adding to a 220% preliminary levy authorized last week. The ruling is the culmination of a long-running feud between […]

We Are Already In Depression (If Borrowing Money Is Not Income)

Via Baker & Company Advisory Group, The U.S. economy is not as solid as it appears. Statistical anomalies hide profound weakness. I will examine actual GDP and actual employment. Warning: not for the faint of heart. Do you consider debt as income? Before you answer that, let’s perform a thought experiment. Imagine that you had taken […]

UK Slams Tariffs On Bombardier: “This Is Not What We Expect From A Long-Term Partner”

It appears the Commerce Department's preliminary ruling, issued late last night, to slap a 220% tariff on Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier could trigger an all-out trade war between the UK and Canada (on one side) and the US (on the other) as public officials in the UK and Canada blasted the ruling and threatened retaliation […]