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China Beige Book Warns Economic Slowdown Has Begun

When it comes to the global economy, few things matter as much as China, the trajectory of its economy and especially the pace and impulse of its credit creation, which is ironic because virtually all data coming out of China is fabricated and manipulated, and thoroughly untrustworthy, either on purpose or “by accident.” The latest […]

In Dramatic Reversal, China Gives Up On Deleveraging Pledge

Last week, when looking at the latest Chinese credit data, we made two troubling observations: first, China’s economic growth was slowing across a number of key data points despite massive new credit injected into the economy over the past year. Second, that the formerly massive credit impulse – which was responsible for pushing the global […]

Doug Noland: There Will Be No Way Out When This Market Bubble Bursts

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com, This week Doug Noland joins the podcast to discuss what he refers to as the "granddaddy of all bubbles". Noland, a 30-year market analyst and specialist in credit cycles, currently works at McAlvany Wealth Management and is well known for his prior 16-year stint helping manage the Prudent Bear Fund. […]

Weekend Reading: Keeping You Awake At Night

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In her last testimony before Congress as head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen made a curious statement: “I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory. Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it’s also […]

Chinese Stock Rout Resumes As Top Fund Sees “High Probability” Of Bond Carnage

In early November, we discussed how commentators were become disturbed by the sell-off in Chinese government bonds after the Party Congress, which saw yields rise to 4.0%. The anomaly was that yields in less-liquid, unsecured Chinese corporate bonds had barely moved. Some sleuthing on the part of the Wall Street Journal discovered that the most […]

China’s Corporate Debt Unexpectedly Rises At Fastest Pace In Four Years, As A New Risk Emerges

Have you heard the one about the priest, the rabbi and China’s deleveraging? We forget how it goes, but it’s pretty damn funny, especially the last part after a Reuters report that following China’s repeated vows by Beijing it would reduce the country’s unprecedented sovereign, municipal, corporate and household leverage, China’s debt is not only […]

China Deleveraging Hits Corporate Bonds As Cascade Effect Begins

Following the market lockdown during October’s Party Congress, many commentators were disturbed by the continued rise in Chinese government bond yields as we returned to “business as usual”, with the 10-year rising to 4%. At the beginning of this month, we discussed the sell-off (see “China: Shadow Bank Inflows Are Critical To Sustain The Ponzi…But […]

“People Ask, Where’s The Leverage This Time?” – Eric Peters Answers

One of the Fed’s recurring arguments meant to explain why the financial system is more stable now than it was 10 years ago, and is therefore less prone to a Lehman or “Black monday”-type event, (which in turn is meant to justify the Fed’s blowing of a 31x Shiller PE bubble) is that there is […]

Dollar Slammed, USDJPY Roiled On Trump Campaign Subpoena Report

it has been a rocky session for the dollar which has dumped to a 4-week low, dragging with it USDJPY, the Nikkei and Treasury yields – and to a lesser extend US equity futures – all of which have slumped in the Japanese am session, following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller’s team “caught the […]

SocGen On China’s Slowdown In The Making

As we highlighted (see here), China’s macro data for October 2017 was disappointing with retail sales and industrial production missing consensus estimates, fixed asset investment was in line and inflation surprised on the upside. There was some impact from state-driven efforts to reduce pollution, but this issue will be an ongoing headache for decades. In […]

“There Are Too Many Warning Signs”: Why One Trader Thinks Stocks Are Set To Slide In The Coming Days

From the latest Macro View edition by Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore Stock markets look set to continue to slide in the days ahead. There are too many small warning signs building up at a vulnerable time for markets. Just because a 3% correction hasn’t happened for a long time doesn’t […]

Chinese Stocks Slide As Economic Slowdown Accelerates

Being the first data following The National Congress, we are expecting little in the way of disappointment from China's macro data. However, the slowdown in credit supply has been well telegraphed, and sure enough the data was not pretty with FAI growth at its weakest in 17 years, Retail Sales and Industrial Production both disappoint. […]

Here Is The IMF’s Global Financial Crash Scenario

Hidden almost all the way in the end of the first chapter of the IMF’s latest Financial Stability Report, is a surprisingly candid discussion on the topic of whether “Rising Medium-Term Vulnerabilities Could Derail the Global Recovery”, which is a politically correct way of saying is the financial system on the verge of crashing. In […]

Yield Curve Inverts, Yuan Slides As China GDP Growth Slows

Despite all the talk of deleveraging, China did anything but according to its most recent data but the lagged impact of the tumbling credit impulse is starting to show up in the broader macro data. Despite the National Congress being under way (and recent credit spikes and positive PBOC hints) GDP growth limped lower to […]

Critical Threats To 2017’s Bull Market – Part 2: Over-hyped Risks?

With The Donald J. Industrial Average surpassing new record highs every day, questioning this bull market's continued existence remains heresy outside of dark little corners of the internet. However, continuing his series, Bloomberg's macro strategist Mark Cudmore dares to mention a few of the more prescient 'known unknowns' that could hamper the meltup for the […]