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The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s A Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually […]


Moody’s Warns U.S. Office Real Estate At “Cyclical Tipping Point” That Will Devastate CMBS Market

We’ve frequently written about the growing supply problem in the major commercial real estate markets across the country (for example: NYC Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunge Over 50% As Owners Lever Up In The Absence Of Buyers).  Now it seems that Moody’s is also growing somewhat concerned that growing supply, combined with waning demand and […]


Deutsche Bank Explains The Five Biggest “Market Conundrums”

While pundits contemplate whether the bitcoin bubble is bigger, smaller or the same size as the dot com bubble, few are willing to admit that day to day events in the equity market are just as ridiculous, bubbly and bizarre as what takes place in the crypto realm. To address this lack of coverage, yesterday […]


Morgan Stanley Turns Apocalyptic On Credit: “A Cycle Turn Is Closer Than Many Believe”

While many have repeatedly warned over the past year that the record gains in credit are simply too good to stay – especially in Europe where yields and spreads have collapsed largely thanks to the ECB’s relentless purchases of corporate debt, with the central bank announcing on Monday it held a record €127.7bn in bonds […]


So Why Did Capital One “Suddenly” Exit Mortgage Lending??

Last week, Capital One Financial (COF) announced that is was formally withdrawing from the residential mortgage loan market.  Some observers mistook this announcement for news, thinking that COF had actually been engaged in residential lending in a serious way.  Housing Wire, for example, reported that COF had “suddenly” exited the mortgage and home equity business. […]


Sam Zell Is Stumped: “For Amazon’s Value To Be Justified, It Has To Be Worth 25% Of The US Economy In 5 Years”

When it comes to the last financial crisis, few timed the peak quite as well as Sam Zell, who sold his Equity Office Properties Trust, the largest office REIT, to Blackstone in 2007, literally days before the bottom fell out of the market. So, with Goldman dying to know when the next crash will take […]


Goldman’s Top Strategist Reveals The Two Biggest Risks To The Market Today

The past few months have been a very nervous time at Goldman Sachs, and not just because Gary Cohn wasn’t picked to replace Janet Yellen as next Fed chair. Back in September, Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote that the bank’s Bear Market Risk Indicator had recently shot up to 67%, prompting Goldman to ask, rhetorically, […]


Global Stock Meltup Sends Nikkei To 25 Year High

The global risk levitation continues, sending Asian stocks just shy of records, to the highest since November 2007 and Japan’s Nikkei topped 22,750 – a level last seen in 1992 – while European shares and US equity futures were mixed, and the dollar rose across the board, gains accelerating through the European session with EURUSD […]


Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown Sinks Property Prices

By Wolf Richter, WOLFSTREET.com: Commercial real estate prices soared relentlessly for years after the Financial Crisis, to such a degree that the Fed has been publicly fretting about them. Why? Because US financial institutions hold nearly $4 trillion of commercial real estate loans. But the boom in most CRE sectors is over. The Green Street […]


The Tale Of Two Americas – Urban Rise, Rural Demise, & The Rationale To Hyper-Monetize

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, (The following was written as an outline for a potential book.  To this point no publisher has shown interest and time and funds have run out.) America is in the midst of an ongoing and accelerating shift in demographics and population growth.  These trends, long in place, are at […]


Meet The New Antibiotic-Resistant ‘Hypervirulent’ Superbug Discovered In China

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com To take your mind off nuclear war with North Korea and deadly hurricanes, let’s talk about other ways to cull the herd… Scientists at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hangzhou, China have discovered a new strain of antibiotic-resistant pneumonia which spreads incredibly fast, after a 2016 outbreak in a hospital ICU […]


What Financial Conditions Tell Us (Two Charts & A Prediction)

Via FFWiley.com, It seems every bank, including central banks, publishes a financial conditions index these days. And because financial conditions typically lead the economy, it makes sense to track them. In fact, they might contain even more information than they get credit for. They might offer the elusive “crystal ball” that foretells our economic fortunes. […]


FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

Since the July 26th 'nothingburger' FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today's Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The Fed sees inflation "picking up over the next couple years" but this […]