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Morgan Stanley Turns Apocalyptic On Credit: “A Cycle Turn Is Closer Than Many Believe”

While many have repeatedly warned over the past year that the record gains in credit are simply too good to stay – especially in Europe where yields and spreads have collapsed largely thanks to the ECB’s relentless purchases of corporate debt, with the central bank announcing on Monday it held a record €127.7bn in bonds […]


“People Ask, Where’s The Leverage This Time?” – Eric Peters Answers

One of the Fed’s recurring arguments meant to explain why the financial system is more stable now than it was 10 years ago, and is therefore less prone to a Lehman or “Black monday”-type event, (which in turn is meant to justify the Fed’s blowing of a 31x Shiller PE bubble) is that there is […]


“This Doesn’t End Well”: SocGen Explains Why US Balance Sheets Are Far Worse Than They Appear

Reverting to one of his favorite topics – namely how the application of a statistical average of a sharply bimodal sample tends to muddle the resulting signal, something Ray Dalio expounded on as recently as last month– on Monday morning, SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne explains not only why the true story of US corporate balance sheets […]


Goldman’s Top Strategist Reveals The Two Biggest Risks To The Market Today

The past few months have been a very nervous time at Goldman Sachs, and not just because Gary Cohn wasn’t picked to replace Janet Yellen as next Fed chair. Back in September, Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote that the bank’s Bear Market Risk Indicator had recently shot up to 67%, prompting Goldman to ask, rhetorically, […]


Here Is The IMF’s Global Financial Crash Scenario

Hidden almost all the way in the end of the first chapter of the IMF’s latest Financial Stability Report, is a surprisingly candid discussion on the topic of whether “Rising Medium-Term Vulnerabilities Could Derail the Global Recovery”, which is a politically correct way of saying is the financial system on the verge of crashing. In […]


Yellen Doubles Down: “Valuations Are At High Levels Historically”

On the heels of San Franciso Fed Governor John Williams' warning  that The Fed "doesn't want there to be excesses in financial markets… " Janet Yellen has reiterated her concerns that markets are a bit toppy… Market valuations “are at high level in historical terms” when assessed on metrics akin to price-earnings ratios, warned Fed […]


These U.S. Companies Have The Most Cash Parked Overseas

While many US companies, especially those in the Russell 2000, have seen their stocks surge in recent days on renewed hopes that Trump tax reform may pass in the coming months (Goldman assigned a 65% probability of Trump tax passing), the reality is that for a vast majority of US corporations a tax cut to […]


Here’s The Latest Sign That Manhattan Residential Real Estate Is Headed For A Crash

Since the late 1990s, Manhattan real estate has become one of the premier destinations for foreigners – particularly wealthy Russian and Chinese businessmen – looking to stash their money offshore, helping to transform once-derelict neighborhoods like Soho into trendy hubs for the global elite, while sending housing prices throughout the city rocketing higher, putting the […]


“The Dreaded Phase 4”: What Happens When Credit Spreads Finally Rise

With investors, traders, analysts and pundits focused on the chaos in the White House, and the daily barrage of escalating geopolitical and social news, whether terrorist attacks in Europe or clashes in inner America, the market is finally starting to notice as Friday’s last hour sell-off demonstrated. And yet, according to one of the best […]


Shocking Admission From Global Head Of Strategy: “Our Clients Have Given Up On Valuation As A Metric”

For all the recent concerns about an “imminent” nuclear war with North Korea (not happening, according to the head of the CIA), which prompted a stunned reaction from Morgan Stanley which earlier today observed the “70% rise in the VIX index over three days, 2% drop in global equities, and more than a few holidays […]