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In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]


“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]


The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate […]


Beware The Falling Knives: The ECB Has Some Bad News For Junk Bond Buyers

Two weeks ago, as part of our continuing coverage of the Steinhoff fiasco in which it emerged that the ECB was the mystery and (not so) proud buyer of just issued Steinhoff (now junk) bonds (maturing in 2025 but set for bankruptcy much sooner) and which lost more than half of their value overnight when […]


The ECB Has Some Bad News For Junk Bond Buyers

Two weeks ago, as part of our continuing coverage of the Steinhoff fiasco in which it emerged that the ECB was the mystery and (not so) proud buyer of just issued Steinhoff (now junk) bonds (maturing in 2025 but set for bankruptcy much sooner) and which lost more than half of their value overnight when […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


Is it “Late 2007” For the Everything Bubble?

Timing the end of a major bubble is extraordinarily difficult as it entails figuring out when a critical mass of investors shift from greed to fear. Having said that, we’ve recently seen a number of developments that would suggest we’re near the end of the current Bond Bubble. Back in June the world saw the […]


ECB Caught In Sprawling Scandal After Bonds It Owns Implode

While you were sleeping, the stock and bonds of a relatively unknown company in the US, but is a household name in much of the rest of the world, Steinhoff International Holdings NV, plunged after its chief executive officer resigned amid accounting irregularities, with the company announcing that it was indefinitely delaying the release of […]


Bubble Watch: The Everything Bubble is Riskier and Less Liquid Than Housing

As we keep emphasizing, the world is in an Everything Bubble. In truth, it is a bubble in sovereign bonds, created by Central Banks attempting to corner these markets via ZIRP and QE. However, because sovereign bonds are the bedrock for the current fiat financial system, if they go into a bubble, EVERYTHING goes into […]


Short Sellers Are Aggravating China’s Bond Rout – Regulators AWOL (For Now)

After the Party Congress finished in October and China’s centrally planned markets were released (somewhat) from the vice-like grip which had prevailed during the proceedings, we noted the comment from Huachuang Securities that China’s bond holders may be about to get hit by “daggers falling from the sky”, referring to deleveraging. They were right, to […]


What Is Behind China’s Bond Rout?

Until a modest dip in Chinese bond yields in the past two days, 10y CGB and 10y policy bank bond yields soared by 40bps and 70bps, respectively, over the last 2 months. In fact, Chinese government notes are headed for the worst selloff since 2013, with the 10-year yield surging 86bps this year to 3.92%, […]


Bubble Watch: US Margin Debt Now Equal the Economy of Taiwan

When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower. Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system. And for the […]


AAA-Rated Oxford University To Issue £250 Million Ultra Long 100-Year Bond

Individual Oxford colleges – there are thirty-eight altogether – have issued bonds in the past, but this will be a first for the ancient University as a whole. Timed to perfection for its upcoming bond issue, Moody’s today assigned a “AAA” credit rating, with a stable outlook, to the 900-year old institution. According to Moody’s, […]