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Loonie Tumbles After BOC Keeps Rates On Hold, Signals “Continued Caution”, “Considerable Uncertainty”

After two rate hikes earlier in the year, one of which caught traders by surprise, moments ago the Bank of Canada announced that it had kept its rate on hold at 1.00% as expected. Stateing that “the global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR)” the central bank […]


Turkey At Risk Of Hyperinflation As CPI Soars To 14-Year High

Turkey’s currency is being battered from all sides at the moment. In October 2017, the Lira fell sharply after both countries suspended bilateral visa processing in the latest US/Turkey diplomatic spat (although this was reversed in early November). Two weeks ago, it fell to a record low of 3.97 to the dollar, prompting the central […]


Global Stocks Tumble, Asia Plunges On Chinese Commodity Carnage

The euphoria of the past month has ended with a thud and BTFDers are strangely missing as the commodity chill out of China (which overnight became full blown carnage), has unleashed a global risk-off phase ahead of today’s critical CPI data, resulting in broad and sharp selling across global markets, as European stocks followed declines […]


The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing “WARNING!”

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation. As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans. I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of […]


The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation. As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans. I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of […]


What Few Expect: Inflation Will Surge, Destabilizing The Status Quo

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Few seem to ponder what global shortages in key commodities might do to prices. If there is any economic truism that is accepted by virtually everyone, it's that inflation is low and will stay low into the foreseeable future. The reasons are numerous: technology is deflationary, globalization […]


Watch Live: Hawkish Yellen Says Fed May Have Misjudged Inflation, Labor Market

Update: In her prepared remarks, Yellen crucially said, “A more important issue from a policy standpoint is that some key assumptions underlying the baseline outlook could be wrong in ways that imply that inflation will remain low for longer than currently projected.” As Bloomberg explains, she is stating a bit more clearly than before that […]


The Week’s Key Events: European Inflation, US CapEx And Non-Stop Fed Speakers

Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy […]


New York Fed Calculates Inflation Is Running Hottest Since 2007

As if inflation wasn’t “mysterious” enough to the Fed already, today the New York Fed joined the Atlanta Fed first in releasing its own measure to track underlying inflation called, simply, the Underlying Inflation Gauge. What is notable is that this latest inflation tracker shows prices behaving quite differently from traditional indexes this year. According […]


A Tsunami of Inflation Has Just Appeared on the Horizon

Inflation is coming. It’s taken seven years of ZIRP and over $4 trillion in QE, but the Federal Reserve has finally begun to unleash inflation. It won’t show up in the official inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index CPI for a while. And this is intentional. The Fed knows that CPI doesn’t measure real […]


August Consumer Prices Surge As Shelter Costs Spike Most Since 2005

After disappointing (for The Fed's inflationistas) producer prices growth yesterday, consumer prices jumped 0.4% MoM in August – the biggest spike since January. Gains were driven by soaring energy costs (offset by a big decline in vehicle prices).   Year over Year, CPI remains below The Fed's mandat at +1.9% but that is hotter than […]


Is Amazon To Blame The Fed Can’t Hit Its Inflation Target

It’s been a bad year for inflation forecasters: every month this year, economist consensus has expected core CPI to rise by 0.2% and every month since March, that figure has proven to be too high, resulting in 5 consecutive inflation misses and the weakest stretch of core inflation growth since 2010. Tomorrow’s CPI print, however, […]


World Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Irma, Korea Rally Continues; Pounds Surges

World stocks hit new record highs on Tuesday amid a continuation of Monday’s risk-on theme which unleashed a dramatic relief rally on easing North Korea tensions and signs that Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared (which according to Keynesians should be GDP negative). The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2%, hitting the highest on […]


Global Stocks Rise On Strong Economic Data, Dollar Set To End Streak Of Monthly Declines

It’s groundhog day as S&P futures, European and Asian shares all rise overnight, while the dollar is set to . The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is finally headed for its first monthly gain since February, supported by renewed focus on better-than-forecast U.S. economic growth with the dollar getting an added boost after a Reuters report […]