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Attention Derivatives Traders: Here Are “The Top 17 Themes To Remember From 2017”

Last week, as part of its must read 2018 Outlook piece, Bank of America’s derivatives team pointed out two particularly notable things: the first was BofA’s version of the (central-bank mediated) “feedback loop” diagram that keeps volatility record low and grinding even lower, as selling of vol has become a self-reinforcing dynamic, in which lower […]


BofA’s Derivatives Wizards Reveal “The Top 17 Themes To Remember From 2017”

Last week, as part of its must read 2018 Outlook piece, Bank of America’s derivatives team pointed out two particularly notable things: the first was BofA’s version of the (central-bank mediated) “feedback loop” diagram that keeps volatility record low and grinding even lower, as selling of vol has become a self-reinforcing dynamic, in which lower […]


Deutsche: “We Are Almost At The Point Beyond Which There Will Be No More Bubbles”

Whereas many Wall Street strategists enjoy simplifying their stream of consciousness when conveying their thoughts to their increasingly ADHD-afflicted audience, the same can not be said for Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic, who has a troubling habit of requiring a background and competency in grad level post-modernist literature as a prerequisite for his articles among the […]


Eric Peters: Today’s Opportunities Include Negative Convexity, Complexity, Illiquidity, Leverage, Or All The Above

From the latest Weekend Notes by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management Anecdote “What are the odds we come across an opportunity in the coming 4yrs to earn 20%?” the investor asked his team. “High,” they answered. “The odds are 100%,” he said, having seen this movie a few times. “So our cost […]


Deutsche Bank Explains The Five Biggest “Market Conundrums”

While pundits contemplate whether the bitcoin bubble is bigger, smaller or the same size as the dot com bubble, few are willing to admit that day to day events in the equity market are just as ridiculous, bubbly and bizarre as what takes place in the crypto realm. To address this lack of coverage, yesterday […]


Spitznagel Warns “Not All Risk Mitigation Is Created Equal”

Authored by Mark Spitznagel via PIOnline.com, There is a movement today among pension funds toward systemic risk mitigation – or "safe haven" – strategies. This makes great sense as a potential solution to the widespread underfunding problem. Many pension funds still haven't fully recovered from the crash of 2008, and can't afford another. Moreover, truly […]


Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards

Authored by Matt Barrie via Medium.com, Co-authored with Craig Tindale. I recently watched the federal treasurer, Scott Morrison, proudly proclaim that Australia was in “surprisingly good shape”. Indeed, Australia has just snatched the world record from the Netherlands, achieving its 104th quarter of growth without a recession, making this achievement the longest streak for any […]


Deutsche: Every Time We Asked “How Much Lower Could Vol Go” Things Would Become Unpleasant

According to Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic, we live in a reflexive world, one where “the Fed knows that the market knows and the market knows that the Fed knows that the market knows, so everyone knows, but pretends that nobody knows and the game goes on.” That pretty much covers much of modern market analysis […]


“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics

Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time in 2012 that markets “lost their capacity to deal with uncertainty.” It was also […]


“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moment Dynamics

Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time in 2012 that markets “lost their capacity to deal with uncertainty.” It was also […]


Goldman Is Allowing Its Clients To Bet On The Next Financial Crisis

Just over a decade ago, as the S&P was hitting all time highs and there was a line around the block of 30-some year old hedge fund managers, desperate to put other people’s money in various ultra risky investments just so they could pick a few excess bps of yield over Treasurys – a situation […]


A Market In Which “Shocks No Longer Shock”: Deutsche’s Kocic Explains How To Trade It

Back in June, one of Wall Street’s more philosophical derivatives strategists, DB’s Aleksandar Kocic looked at the state of the market and postulated that far from “stable” the existing risk  “equilibrium” is one which can be described as “metastable“, the result of widespread complacency, and which he compared to an avalanche where “a totally innocuous […]


Deutsche Bank: “The Fed’s ‘Transparency’ Killed Long-Term Investing”

Two weeks ago, one of our favorite derivatives strategists, BofA Barnaby Martin wrote something we have said for years: “QE has been the most effective way for CBs to ‘sell vol’”, arguing that accommodative monetary policies across the globe amid QE have “clearly supported a strong rebound in fixed income markets.” This should not be […]


Meanwhile, The “Next Big Short” Is Quietly Blowing Up

Back in March, when we detailed the ongoing catastrophic deterioration in the US retail sector, manifesting itself in empty malls, mass store closures, soaring layoffs and growing bankruptcies – demonstrated most vividly by the overnight bankruptcy of Toys “R” Us, the second largest retail bankruptcy in US history after K-Mart – we said that “just […]


“This Has Never Happened Before”: Goldman Warns Low-Vol Regime Is In Jeopardy

Picking up on something we first noted over a month ago, and following last week’s VIX fireworks, this morning Goldman’s Ian Wright looks at the rapid changes in the volatility landscape – beyond just last Thursday’s near historic surge in the VIX which shot up from single digits to over 17 in 48 hours – […]