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Why Monetary Policy Will Cancel Out Fiscal Policy

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Good cheer has arrived at precisely the perfect moment.  You can really see it.  Record stock prices, stout economic growth, and a GOP tax reform bill to boot.  Has there ever been a more flawless week leading up to Christmas? We can’t think of one off hand.  And if […]


Credit Card Debt Suddenly Surges 18% As U.S. Consumers “Pre-Spend” Tax Relief Savings

With Republicans in Washington D.C. on the verge of passing their first major piece of legislation in the form of comprehensive tax cuts that will allow Americans across the income spectrum to keep a little more of their hard earned cash in 2018, it appears as though eager U.S. consumers may have already “pre-spent” their […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


How Fed Rate Hikes Impact US Debt Slaves

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, But savers are still getting shafted. Outstanding “revolving credit” owed by consumers – such as bank-issued and private-label credit cards – jumped 6.1% year-over-year to $977 billion in the third quarter, according to the Fed’s Board of Governors. When the holiday shopping season is over, it will exceed $1 […]


Signs Of The Peak: These 10 Charts Reveal An Auto Bubble On The Brink

U.S. auto sales have hovered well north of replacement rates for several years now on the back of an improving labor environment and more importantly an extremely accommodating financing market characterized by $0 down, 0% interest loans to subprime borrowers, with perpetually longer maturities to help manage monthly payments…because if your monthly payment is $500 […]


US Credit Card Debt Surges Above $1 Trillion, Just Shy Of All Time Highs As Student, Car Loans Breach Records

Earlier in 2017, using the latest – and soon to be revised – Fed data, newspapers and financial media reported that US consumer credit card debt had risen above $1 trillion for the first time since the financial crisis. Ironically, just a few months later the Fed revised its data series sharply lower, sending the […]


China Commodity Carnage Continued Overnight As Brexit Fears & Bitcoin Cheers Dominate

Once again weakness in the US carried through to Asia with stocks unable to hold any National-Team-inspired gains, but it was the contagion to commodities that was most notable (as a hike in exchange fees snuffed out a lot of speculative fervor) European equities have followed suit from their Asia-Pac counterparts to trade higher across […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


Bubble Watch: US Margin Debt Now Equal the Economy of Taiwan

When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower. Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system. And for the […]


Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Senate Tax Vote; Euro Inflation; GDP; OPEC, Fed Speakers

It’s a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We’ll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate […]


Is America In Terminal Decline?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, John Rubino recently posted a graph from Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave that points to some ominous signs. It depicts the S&P 500, combined with consumer confidence and savings rate. As the accompanying video at Elliott Wave, What “Too Confident to Save” Means for Stocks, shows, […]


So Why Did Capital One “Suddenly” Exit Mortgage Lending??

Last week, Capital One Financial (COF) announced that is was formally withdrawing from the residential mortgage loan market.  Some observers mistook this announcement for news, thinking that COF had actually been engaged in residential lending in a serious way.  Housing Wire, for example, reported that COF had “suddenly” exited the mortgage and home equity business. […]


One Chart Proves Auto SAAR Numbers Are Nothing More Than A Rigged, Debt-Fueled Farce

Earlier this morning the New York Federal Reserve released their quarterly consumer credit report which detailed, among other things, delinquencies rates on every type of consumer debt from mortgages to student loans.   Now, given the 4.3% unemployment rate in the U.S. (forget the ~95 million people out of the labor force for a moment) and […]


The Disconcerting Message Behind The Plummeting Savings Rate

Two weeks ago we noted how the savings rate in the US had plunged to 3.1% in September 2017, its lowest rate since December 2007 which, coincidentally, was when the last recession started. Probably nothing. The September 2017 figure was less than half the most recent peak of 6.3% in October 2015. As we noted […]