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The Great Recession 10 Years Later: Lessons We Still Have To Learn

Authored by Robert Bruner, op-ed via TheHill.com, Ten years ago this month, a recession began in the U.S. that would metastasize into a full-fledged financial crisis. A decade is plenty of time to reflect on what we have learned, what we have fixed, and what remains to be done. High on the agenda should be […]


Consumer Confidence Stumbles As ‘Hope’ Plunges To 13-Month Lows

This is the highest level of confidence in the "present situation" since April 2001, but just as we saw in 2000 and 2007, the divergence between current confidence (high) and hope for the future (low) is becoming extreme… The headline Conference Board Consumer Confidence print disappointed (dropping to 122.1 from 129.5, missing expectations of 128.0). […]


Global Stocks Rise, Copper Soars In Thin Holiday Volumes

European stocks are steady in post-Christmas trading if struggling for traction after a mixed session in Asia, amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week and ongoing worries about the tech sector; however a strong rally in commodities – including copper and oil – buoyed expectations for a strong 2018 and helped offset concerns over the […]


“This is Groundhog Day”: Spanish Stocks Battered By Catalan Vote, Bitcoin Crashes

Spanish stocks and the euro fell, while Spanish government bond yields hit their highest levels in over a month after Catalan secessionists delivered an unexpected blow to the government of Spanish PM Rajoy by winning the Catalan regional election. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, U.S. equity futures and the dollar rose on the last trading session […]


Holiday Spending Set To Hit 12-Year High Thanks To…Debt

Even though consumer confidence cooled for a second straight month in November, CNBC is reporting that holiday spending for the average American household is on track to be the highest in 12 years. Amazingly, the CNBC All-America Survey found that the average family will spend $900 for the first time in the 12-year history of […]


As Stocks Soar, Americans’ Economic Expectations Hit 2017 Lows

This does not fit the narrative… ignore it! Americans’ outlook for the U.S. economy fell in December to match the weakest for the year and a weekly measure of confidence cooled to a two-month low, even as both gauges remain high by historical standards, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed Thursday. As Bloomberg notes, The […]


Global Bond Rout Eases As Nervous Traders Watch For “Selling On The Tax News”, Catalan Vote

U.S. equity futures are little changed with the GOP Tax Plan now a done deal and no more daily “pricing in” of tax reform possible, as traders nerviously look to see if others will now be “selling the news”, a preview of which we got yesterday when US equity indexes closed red across the board […]


Homebuilder Optimism Soars To Highest Since 1999… There’s Just One Thing

And so it appears that America’s homebuilders – cock-a-hoop over tax reform (which caps the mortgage interest deduction?) – aren’t concerned about affordability, about rising rates, and stagnant incomes. In fact they have not been this optimistic since December 1999. There’s just one thing… as University of Michigan consumer confidence data shows, for the ‘average […]


Bank Of America: “This Is The First Sign That A Bubble Has Arrived”

Lately, fund flow data has all the credibility of a NYT presidential poll two days before the Trump defeats Hillary.  On one hand, you have Lipper reporting that investors pulled $16.2bn from U.S.-based equity funds in the past week, the largest withdrawals since December 2016. The same Lipper also reported that taxable-bond mutual funds and […]


Small Business Optimism Spikes To Highest Since 1983, There’s Just One Thing…

The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey hit this morning and it surged to near record highs…   With Small Businesses having never been so excited to hire people ever… Construction, manufacturing and professional services registered notable increases in planned hiring. The figures indicate the recent solid pace of job growth will be sustained and help […]


As Stocks Soar To Record High, Americans’ Consumer Confidence Tumbles In November

Despite soaring stock market values and an endless array of postive survey data from various estabishment-based entities, University of Michigan confidence tumbled in November. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. cooled for a second month. While current conditions managed to improve, expectations for the future slumped… “Perhaps the most important changes in early December were higher income […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Gold Shorts Plunge To 5-Year Lows

Despite the record highs in stocks (and consumer confidence), a 'resurgent' economy, tax reforms, rate-hikes, and deregulation; traders are adamantly opposed to shorting precious metals… As Bloomberg points out, hedge funds and other large speculators pared their bearish position on bullion futures and options to a five-year low last week, driven in part by looming […]


Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Tax Bill Chaos Erupts In The Senate

Markets were thrown for a loop in the past 24 hours, with the Dow first soaring nearly 400 points on Thursday on expectations that tax reform was a done deal, when drama emerged just after the close when the Senate tax bill came this close to falling apart when the proposed “Trigger” was ruled as […]


US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday’s blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell’s deregulation promise, ahead of today’s 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. […]