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Consumer Confidence Stumbles As ‘Hope’ Plunges To 13-Month Lows

This is the highest level of confidence in the "present situation" since April 2001, but just as we saw in 2000 and 2007, the divergence between current confidence (high) and hope for the future (low) is becoming extreme… The headline Conference Board Consumer Confidence print disappointed (dropping to 122.1 from 129.5, missing expectations of 128.0). […]


The Rude Awakening Of Slumbering Bulls

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Near the end of each year, Barron’s magazine highlights the outlooks for the next year from 10, or so, Wall Street strategists. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader: “Strategists are a little more optimistic than the Big Money was, forecasting a gain of around 7% for the S&P 500 […]


Preview Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report: Here’s What Wall Street Expects

What a difference a year makes: last December, just as the ECB was about to shock the market with the announcement of its first €20 billion QE tapering, macroeconomic data mattered, especially since the Fed’s tightening intertia appeared to truly be data-dependent, if only for a very short period of time. Fast forward one year, […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC […]


US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday’s blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell’s deregulation promise, ahead of today’s 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. […]


In The Past 50 Years, Americans Have Seldom Been ‘More Confident’ Than Today

The Conference Board's survey of Americans' Consumer Confidence surged to its highest since November 2000 in November, with both current and furture expectations spiking. In th epast 50 years, Americans have – apparently – seldom been more confident than they are now… Does that sound right? Additionally, confidence in a soaring stock market is back […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Senate Tax Vote; Euro Inflation; GDP; OPEC, Fed Speakers

It’s a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We’ll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate […]


Frontrunning: November 24

Online sales surge, shoppers throng stores  (Reuters) A Split From Trump Indicates That Flynn Is Moving to Cooperate With Mueller (NYT) At least 85 people killed in attack on mosque in Egypt’s north Sinai (Reuters) Germany’s SPD Softens Stance on Merkel Talks Amid Deadlock (WSJ) Irish government set to fall weeks before Brexit summit (Reuters) […]


Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By “Germany’s Brexit Moment”; TSY Curve Collapse Continues

S&P 500 futures are higher, continuing on yesterday’s momentum, after European and Asian shares also rose alongside a rebound in oil, as the year-end performance chase appears to be accelerating. There were several different moving parts in a mixed European session, in which early Euro strength gave way to weakness… … which in turn pushed […]


Is America In Terminal Decline?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, John Rubino recently posted a graph from Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave that points to some ominous signs. It depicts the S&P 500, combined with consumer confidence and savings rate. As the accompanying video at Elliott Wave, What “Too Confident to Save” Means for Stocks, shows, […]


American’s Consumer Confidence Highest Since The Peak Of DotCom Bubble

The animal spirits among American consumers has not been this 'high' since the year 2000… The only time in US history that confidence was this high… was the dotcom bubble… but it's different this time…   With the Mountain Region surging to Dec 1999 record highs… “Consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]


All Hail: Xi Jinping Confirmed As “Most Powerful Chinese Leader Since Mao”

The phrase “Socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era” is hardly catchy, but wields immense power. Xi Jinping became the first incumbent leader since Mao to have his name and thought added to the Party’ guiding principles, symbolising a major elevation in his power. Bloomberg reports “China’s ruling Communist Party approved a revised charter […]


Stocks Hit New Record Highs, Dollar Jumps On Senate Vote; Japan Has Longest Winning Streak In History

Global stocks hit new all time highs overnight, with US stock-index futures, Asian and European stocks all rising overnight after the Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution, paving the way for Trump’s $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, while news that “dove” Jay Powell may be the next Fed chair added to the risk-on sentiment. […]


Dollar Surges, Bonds Dump Ahead Of Trump Tax Plan

S&P futures are set for a higher open (+ 0.1%) despite the expected hit to the Dow from Nike which is down over 3% on unexpectedly poor revenue growth, as European stocks gain while Asian shares dropped. Like yesterday when the big story was the jump in the USD ahead of Yellen's (rather hawkish) speech, […]