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China Beige Book Warns Economic Slowdown Has Begun

When it comes to the global economy, few things matter as much as China, the trajectory of its economy and especially the pace and impulse of its credit creation, which is ironic because virtually all data coming out of China is fabricated and manipulated, and thoroughly untrustworthy, either on purpose or “by accident.” The latest […]


China’s Infrastructure Boom Heading For Rapid Slowdown In 2018

There have been signs since October’s Party Congress that China’s infrastructure boom was about to cool off as the leadership seeks to contain debt levels and focus on the quality not the quantity of growth. Subway building is one sector which has seen some high-profile project cancellations. In mid-November 2017, Caixin reported that China’s top […]


China Regulators Seek To Calm Mania For HK Stocks As Plunge Protectors Make An Appearance

The Chinese authorities’ efforts to contain leverage and reduce risk across the nation’s financial system took another step forward overnight with the ban on approvals for mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% of their portfolios to Hong Kong stocks. This looks like a response to surging capital flows into the territory from […]


China’s Corporate Debt Unexpectedly Rises At Fastest Pace In Four Years, As A New Risk Emerges

Have you heard the one about the priest, the rabbi and China’s deleveraging? We forget how it goes, but it’s pretty damn funny, especially the last part after a Reuters report that following China’s repeated vows by Beijing it would reduce the country’s unprecedented sovereign, municipal, corporate and household leverage, China’s debt is not only […]


“Not Our Fault” – ECB Says “Fake Data” Is To Blame For The Coming “Manias And Panics”

In the days ahead of China’s Communist Party Congress last month, which culminated with the crowning of Xi Jinping as the modern equivalent of a quasi-emperor, China’s securities watchdog made it clear to local companies that bad news would not be tolerated, and “advised” loss-making companies to avoid publishing quarterly results as authorities were desperate […]


Stockman Exposes “The Black Swan In Plain Sight” – Debt Out The Wazoo

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The black swan in plain sight does emit the Donald's orangish glow, but at the end of the day its true color is actually red. That is, monumental towers of rapidly rising debt loom everywhere on the planet. For the moment, the artificial cash flow from this unsustainable borrowing spree is keeping a simulacrum of growth […]


PBOC’s Zhou Warns Of “Sudden, Complex, Hidden, Contagious, Hazardous” Risks In Global Markets

Just two weeks after warning of the potential for an imminent 'Minsky Moment', Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has penned a lengthy article on The PBOC's website that warns ominously of latent risks accumulating, including some that are "hidden, complex, sudden, contagious and hazardous," even as the overall health of the financial system appears […]


Ding Dong Dandong – First Chinese Corporate Default After Party Congress

Just over a week ago we highlighted how China’s financial regulator had instructed companies to delay the reporting of bad corporate news until after the Party Congress. As Bloomberg noted… China’s securities watchdog has asked some loss-making companies to avoid publishing quarterly results this week as authorities seek to ensure stock-market stability during the Communist […]


China PMIs Disappoint, Tumble In October

China manufacturing PMI tumbled from 5-year highs in October as officials increasingly prioritize a campaign to clamp down on polluting industries and rein in debt. Non-manufacturing took an even bigger hit, also disappointing expectations, as the lagged impact of China's deteriorating credit impulse begins to weigh… As Bloomberg reporets, factories closed and others reduced production […]


“Daggers Are Falling From The Sky” – China Stocks, Bonds Tumble After National Congress Ends

Who could have seen this coming? After weeks of 'calm' – demanded by The People's Party – and well-managed 'National Team' ramps top 'prove' how much Xi's plan for the nesxt five years is being received, the end of China's National Congress has been met with… a plunge in stock and bond markets.     […]


China’s Congress Is Over, And So Is The Period Of “Coordinated Global Growth”

It is hardly a secret that thanks to nearly $4 trillion (at least) in credit creation in 2017 – more than the rest of the developed world combined – China has been the proverbial (and debt-funded) “growth” dynamo behind the recent period of “coordinated global growth.” Unfortunately, much if not all of this was window […]


Is This China’s Minsky Moment?

Authord by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Sometimes you have to love the naivety of the markets. At this week’s Communist Party Congress meeting in Beijing, the governor of the PBoC (People’s Bank of China) said the following; “If we are too optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up, which could lead […]


China Regulator Instructs Companies To Delay Bad Results Until After Congress

In the U.S., equity markets have officially reached the phase in the bubble where fundamentals are almost entirely irrelevant and stocks trade up irrespective of whether company earnings are positive or negative…in technical terms you could say we’re in the later stages of the BTFD phase of the economic cycle.  That said, as Bloomberg points […]


China’s Government Is Expected To Buy 24% Of All Residential Real Estate For Sale In 2017

Back in March, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth will keep rising. However, unlike the […]


Unprecedented Housing Bailout Revealed, As China Property Sales Drop For First Time In 30 Months

Back in March, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth will keep rising. However, unlike the […]