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Despite Overnight Ramp, Stocks Are Being Dumped At The Open (Again)

Sell the news… again… Nasdaq is now red on the week again…   VIX crashed to 8.90 as cash markets opened…   30Y yields back at the Nov 1st FOMC level…   Some are suggesting the extremely rapid long-squeeze in Treasuries is triggering Risk-Parity unwinds… http://WarMachines.com


Gold Pops As Bitcoin Drops, Dollar Snaps Longest Win Streak Since Jan 2016

"Contained"…   Post-FOMC, Gold was the biggest gainer…   US Equities were holding to gains but tumbled in the last few minutes with the S&P turning red…   Nasdaq manged to hold gains after The Fed…   VIX was noisy around CPI early on and snapped higher into the close (breaking above the terrifying level […]


FOMC Hikes Rates As Expected: Expects 3 Hikes, Faster Growth As Two Dissent

With a 98.3% probability heading in, there was really no doubt the most-telegraphed rate-hike ever would occur, but all eyes are on the dots (rate trajectory shows 3 hikes in 2018), inflation outlook (unchanged), and growth outlook (faster growth in 2018), and lowered unemployment outlook to below 4%. The Fed also plans to increase its […]


Yellen’s Big Goodbye (And What She’s Leaving Behind)

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, The past three Fed Chairs before Yellen all had their own crisis to deal with. Volcker had the disaster of the early 1980’s as he struggled to tame inflation with double digit interest rates. That helped contribute to the Latin American debt crisis, and the subsequent […]


Gold Pops, Bond Yields Drop, & Dollar Flops After Weaker-Than-Expected CPI

Hours ahead of today's "historic" final Yellen FOMC rate hike, CPI disappointed and traders are bidding bonds and bullion while dumping the dollar… The odds of two rate hikes next year just tumbled… Gold jumped and the dollar dumped…   And Treasury yields are tumbling… http://WarMachines.com


FOMC Signals Dovish Inflation Concerns, Warns “Sharp Reversal” In Markets Could Damage Economy

With a dumping dollar and collapsing yield curve since November's FOMC, all eyes are on the Minutes for any signals of The Fed hawkishly ignoring inflation concerns but instead a few Fed officials opposed near-term hikes (on the basis of weak inflation). Furthermore, several Fed officials warned of the potential for bubbles, "in light of […]


Markets Shrug At ‘Neutral’ Fed Statement – Dec Rate-Hike Odds Hold At 87%

The wishy-washiest Fed statement ever was met with a nothingburger response from the market. December rate-hike odds are very modestly higher at 87%… Stocks are unchanged, and bonds and gold are modestly lower with a slightly higher dollar. As Bloomberg Intelligence Rates Strategist Ira Jersey noted: “The Fed’s policy statement was as boring and expected […]


FOMC Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Growth To “Solid” From “Moderate”

In perhaps the least anticipated FOMC statement in months – with expectations of no rate-change and normalization on path – all eyes were on inflation/growth wording. Some feared a more dovish Fed might upset the exuberant growth narrative that is embedded into equity valuations (but not the yield curve), but The Fed seemed slightly more […]


Dovish, Neutral Or Hawkish: Here Is Your Last Minute FOMC Cheat Sheet

As we previewed earlier this morning, today’s FOMC announcement will most likely be a snooze-fest, with consensus expecting the Fed to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.00-1.25% as it continues to evaluate to what degree recent disinflation is temporary or persistent. As several trading desks have opined, the committee […]


Why Today’s Big Fed Risk Is A “Dovish Surprise”: One Trader Explains

In our preview of today’s FOMC, we said there is virtually no way the Fed could surprise on the hawkish side, especially with Trump set to unveil Jay Powell as the new head of the Fed: after all, the December rate hike is over 80% priced in at this point. But what about the opposite […]


FX Weekly Preview: All Eyes On Yellen, Trump And The Yield Curve

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdaily.co.uk Looking to the week ahead, we have the FOMC meeting midweek, and for all the expectations that there will no change this time around, the market will be sensitive – to the downside – on any rhetoric in the statement which puts Dec in doubt.  […]


Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, & Dollar Down But Tax-Hope Tumbles

Think you had a bad day…   Overnight saw market watchers celebrate the exuberant run in Japan's Nikkei 225 to its highest levels since 1996 (up 200% from its 2008/9 lows)… So – some context – it has taken 21 years of "buy and hold" to breakeven… and the index still needs to rally 88% […]


FOMC Minutes Show Schizophrenic Fed Fears Low Inflation Is Here To Stay But Push For Another Rate Hike In 2017

The yield curve has collapsed since The Fed's hawkish September statement (but bank stocks have soared) as rate-hike odds hit 80% and balance sheet normalization is believed to be like watching paint dry. All eyes going into the FOMC Minutes were on just how transitory The Fed believed inflation's dip was – "many Fed officials […]


The Key Things To Look For In Today’s FOMC Minutes

Looking at today’s scheduled release of Minutes from the September FOMC meeting (which at least according to one trader will be the “start of the market changeover process“), RanSquawk reminds us that the Federal Open Market Committee stood pat at the meeting, as expected. The Committee also announced that it would begin to shrink the […]