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Inflation Watch: This Popular Sector is in Serious Trouble in 2018

Tech is warning about inflation. Tech performs terribly during periods of higher inflation. If you think I’m making this up, take a look at the NASDAQ’s performance versus Gold during the last inflationary spike in 2011. Tech tanked, Gold soared. Which is why the recent very bearish breakdown in Tech is worth noting. Between this […]


Meanwhile… The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Remember Monday when stocks jumped and the yield curve steepened and every talking head and their pet rabbit said the bond market is about to explode… well the yield curve is now imploding again with 5s30s crashing almost 10bps to 64bps – the lowest since Oct 2007. False start…   The trend is jnot The […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


The Fed Freaks Out: the Inflation Genie Is Officially Out of the Bottle

Something truly astonishing is happening at the Fed. The Fed FOMC minutes for July contained an incredible admission although most missed it. During that meeting Fed officials implicitly admitted that the Fed had no clue about inflation. This admission was largely swept under the rug. But we took note. And we started preparing accordingly. However, […]


The Week’s Key Events: European Inflation, US CapEx And Non-Stop Fed Speakers

Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy […]


All Eyes On Draghi: Futures Flat, Euro Surges, Dollar Slides; Yuan Breaches 6.50

S&P futures are flat, still spooked by the WSJ’s report that Gary Cohn will not be the next Fed chair, while both European stocks and Asian shares gain in a overnight session on edge in which everyone is looking forward to today’s main risk event: the ECB meeting and Draghi press conference due in under […]


The Week’s Key Events: All Eyes On The ECB

With the US markets closed today, market events this week will be dominated by G10 central bank meetings, among which the ECB stands out, but also notable will be the RBA, BoC and Riksbank. Consensus does not expect policy changes yet. There is also a busy calendar for the UK (PMIs, housing, IP and trade […]


Futures Flat As Gasoline Soars On Harvey Devastation, Rising Euro Sends European Stocks Lower

With billions in economic losses and unknown supply chain shocks to come following devastating and historic flooding in Texas, S&P futures are virtually unchanged (down less than 0.1% at time of writing) while European and Asian shares are modestly lower as oil was little changed. As reported yesterday, gasoline futures surged as the greater impact […]


Full Jackson Hole Agenda Released

While virtually nobody expects anything market shattering, or even moving, to be released during either Janet Yellen’s or Mario Draghi’s speeches tomorrow (recall from our preview what UBS said: “Don’t expect news at Jackson Hole. Chair Yellen has told us what she wants to about normalization, for now. Financial stability matters, but it isn’t new” […]