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How The Asset Bubble Could End – Part 1

Authored by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Another Shoeshine Boy Moment We recently pondered the markets while trying out our brand-new electric soup-cooling spoon (see below). We are pondering the markets quite often lately, because we believe tail risk has grown by leaps and bounds and we may be quite close to an important juncture, i.e.,  […]


“It’s Not Politics, It’s Survival” – Bitcoin, Local Currencies Are Taking Over In Venezuela

Anybody who believes that central banks are essential pillars of economic stability that deserve the untrammeled authority to issue currencies, which they presently enjoy, should take a close look at what’s happening in Venezuela. Central bankers have tended to dismiss the notion of private currencies as an idea embraced only by techno-libertarian wingnuts (they have […]


2018: Irrational Complacency – “What Is Your Exit Strategy?”

Authored by Alberto Gallo via Algebris Investments, “Your loving give me such a thrillBut your love don’t pay my billsNow give me moneyThat’s what I want”Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary […]


Jefferies Fixed Income Revenue Plunges 37% To 2 Year Low

Once upon a time Jefferies was the country’s biggest junk bond trading shop, with a small investment banking group on the side. Now, it’s the other way around. in its latest quarter and fiscal year ended November 30, Jefferies – which is the last public company to announce results in the old bank convention with […]


Crypto Traders Spooked After Korean Exchange Files For Bankruptcy

A cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea collapsed on Tuesday after it suffered a second cyberattack in eight months and lost a large amount of its digital-currency reserves. This spooked Asian investors who sold Bitcoin (and other cryptos). As The Wall Street Journal reports, Yapian, the company that operates a Seoul-based exchange called Youbit, suspended digital-currency […]


“They Are Sleepwalking Into A Major Correction”: One Trader Expects A Violent Move In Bunds

With many expecting long-yield to continue declining no matter what, and how many hikes, the Fed and central banks do on the short end, Tommi Utoslahti, a former derivatives trader and analyst and currently one of Bloomberg’s Global Macro squawkers, disagrees and as he writes in his latest Markets Live note below, expects a violent […]


Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again… Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Tax Reform & The “Japanification” Of America

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Friday, Kevin Brady of the House Ways and Means Committee was on my radio program discussing the “Tax Cuts & Jobs Act” bill which was released later in the day. Here are the details of the release he referenced in the interview. Of course, the real question is how are […]


Zombie Corporations: Over 10% Of Global Companies Depend On Cheap Fed Money

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.themaven.net/mishtalk, Ten percent of corporations survive only because central banks have kept real interest rates negative. The BIS defines Zombie firms as those with a ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest expenses below one, with the firm aged 10 years or more. In simple terms, Zombies are […]


Regulating Cryptocurrencies… And Why It Matters

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Nations that attempt to limit cryptocurrencies' ability to solve these problems will find that protecting high costs and systemic friction will grind their economies into dust. There's a great deal of confusion right now about the regulation of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. Many observers seem to confuse […]


Rising Interest Rates Starting To Bite

Submitted by Gary Evans of Global Macro Monitor We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 dividend yield this past week for the first […]


2018: The Year Central Banks Begin Buying Cryptocurrency

Authored by Eugene Etsebeth via CoinDesk.com, Behind closed doors, G7 central banks are sluggish traders that buy and sell the same foreign currencies, marketable securities, special drawing rights (SDR) and gold day in and day out. Central bank traders follow the investment policy enforced by the executive committees with specific asset allocation targets. In order […]


“All-In” On Tax Reform

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Review & Update In last week’s “Technically Speaking” post I discussed the S&P 500 hitting 2700 by Christmas. To wit: “As stated in the title, the current push higher puts 2700 in sight by the time Santa fills the ‘stockings hung by the chimney with care.’   As shown […]