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The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Authored by Ron Patterson via OilPrice.com, This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. Figure 1: […]


The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

Authored by Peter Tertzakian via OilPrice.com, It’s that time of year when we flip our calendars to a new start. For pundits like me, it’s customary to make a listicle about the year to come – the usual predictions about things like OPEC, energy consumption, commodity prices and electric vehicle sales in China. But I […]


What Will Drive The Next Oil Price Crash?

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, As we roll into 2018, analysts and investors are more optimistic that the oil market will further tighten next year and support higher oil prices, but rising U.S. shale production will likely cap any significant price gains. On the demand side, expectations are that global economic growth will support […]


The 5 Oil Factors To Watch In 2018

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Oil prices are set to close out the year somewhere around 15 percent up, and the oil market looks more stable than it has in years. But what does 2018 have in store? Most analysts believe more of the same – inventory declines, some shale growth, a gradual increase […]


Is The Oil Glut Set To Return?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, For the second month in a row, the IEA has poured cold water onto the oil market, publishing an analysis that suggests 2018 could hold some bearish surprises for crude. The IEA’s December Oil Market Report dramatically revises up the expected growth of U.S. shale, which goes a long […]


OPEC Reports Lowest Oil Output In Six Months; Fears Shale Production Surge

True to its perpetually optimistic form, OPEC, which last month for the first time conceded the threat posed by rising US shale production… … sharply raised its demand forecast for cartel oil in 2018, ahead of the OPEC meeting at the end of November. And, according to OPEC's latest market report for the month of […]


The One Indicator OPEC Must Watch

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, “We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh. OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing […]


OPEC Meeting Concludes: This Is What Was Agreed

As previewed earlier this morning, when the flurry of leaks began, today OPEC reached a deal with non-OPEC partners to extend the oil production cuts until end of 2018 (recall these were supposed to be “temporary” when originally unveiled one year ago) at their meeting in Vienna, as part of producers’ strategy to reduce global […]


WTI Slumps Despite OPEC ‘Deal’ As Russia Questions Remain

Both WTI and RBOB prices are tumbling this morning after OPEC member agree to limit oil output through the end of 2018. While this is bullishly longer-than-expected (6-9mo was expected), OPEC members now rely on Russia to agree to these terms, and it appears the market is questioning that. Furthermore, despite US shale output at […]


OPEC Agrees To Extend Oil Supply Cuts Until End Of 2018: Bloomberg

With OPEC delegates sequestered in a Vienna conference room, as they negotiate the proposed 6-9 month production cut extension, at least one appears to be leaking the decision process to media outlets, because moments ago Bloomberg reported that OPEC ministers have agreed to extend their production cuts until the end of 2018 – agreeing with […]


WTI Tumbles Below $57 As OPEC-Hype Fades

Goldman's Damien Courvalin seems to have perfecvtly summed things up – the market was pricing in an OPEC production cut extension of 6-9 months (accounting for around a $2.50 premium in the price). Today's jawboning from Russia seems to signal April discussions (so a 6-month extension) which is a disappointment – and so WTI prices […]


WTI Unable To Hold Gains Despite Russia, Saudi Jawboning

WTI Crude algos ran stos this morning to pre-API levels on the heels of Russian and Saudi comments, but those gains are fading fast as the machines run out of ammo. API's surprise crude build sparked overnight selling… But this morning's ramp after Saudi/Russia jawboning is fading fast. Russia seemed to confirm its agreement: *RUSSIA […]


OPEC’s Impossible Task

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, OPEC is on the verge of extending its production cuts for an additional nine months, pushing the deal through the end of 2018.  But the determination to keep the cuts in place comes at the same time that U.S. shale seems to be accelerating in response to higher oil […]


“OPEC’s Quagmire”: Goldman Is Very Worried The Cartel Is About To Blow This Meeting

One year after OPEC pulled off what many considered impossible, and on November 30, 2016 in Vienna the cartel managed to reduce oil production by most OPEC and several key non-OPEC nations by 1.2 million barrels daily in an effort to reduce the global oil glut, this time things are looking far more shaky, at […]


Citi: Prepare For An OPEC Disappointment

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, A week out from the OPEC meeting, everyone is assuming a rollover of the production cuts for an additional nine months will be a simple formality, putting the limits in place until the end of 2018. But what if such a scenario fails to materialize? What if the cuts […]