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Citi’s “What If?” Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 “What If” scenarios that didn’t make it into the Citi Credit team’s (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi’s “base case” was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank’s credit team […]

The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

Authored by Peter Tertzakian via OilPrice.com, It’s that time of year when we flip our calendars to a new start. For pundits like me, it’s customary to make a listicle about the year to come – the usual predictions about things like OPEC, energy consumption, commodity prices and electric vehicle sales in China. But I […]

Goldman Is Preparing To Launch A Cryptocurrency Trading Desk

In light of the recent “blockchain” naming craze, this morning we said that the inevitable next round of corporate name changes would involve “JP Blockchain” and “Blockchain Sachs”. Round 2: JP Blockchain vs Blockchain Sachs — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 21, 2017 While this was supposed to be a joke, as so often happens, it ended […]

“In The End, There Was Absurdity” – The Great Crash Of 2018?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen, op-ed via Huffington Post, Crises always take longer to arrive than you think, and then happen much quicker than they ought to. – Rudiger Dornbusch An eerie calm has taken over the world markets. Volatility is crashing, and economic and political shocks come and go without any noticeable effect on the […]

Doug Kass’ 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump

Authored Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, "The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been […]

Someone Just Made $60 Million Betting That The Crowd Is Wrong

Over the weekend we warned that just as everyone was convinced that the yield curve can only flatten from here, and was positioned massively on the long side of the 30Y future, the opposite was about to happen, and in a tweet highlighting the record net spec long positioning in 30Y futures, we said “here […]

Jefferies Fixed Income Revenue Plunges 37% To 2 Year Low

Once upon a time Jefferies was the country’s biggest junk bond trading shop, with a small investment banking group on the side. Now, it’s the other way around. in its latest quarter and fiscal year ended November 30, Jefferies – which is the last public company to announce results in the old bank convention with […]

The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]

Bitcoin Futures Crash Over $2000 From Open, Converge To Bitcoin Spot

Update: Bitcoin and Bitcoin Futures have collapsed since the futures opened… Dropping over $2200 to converge with spot… *  *  * Both CME and CBOE Bitcoin Futures contracts opened above $20,000 this evening (with Bitcoin spot hovering around $19,000). However, as soon as trading started, Bitcoin futures got hammered lower.   Those expecting a surge […]

Bitcoin Futures Open Above $20,000… Then Dump

Both CME and CBOE Bitcoin Futures contracts opened above $20,000 this evening (with Bitcoin spot hovering around $19,000). However, as soon as trading started, Bitcoin futures got hammered lower.   Those expecting a surge in futs volumes on the CME vs the CBOE will be disappointed: CME Bitcoin futures volume 150 ???? — Lee Saks […]

All You Need To Know About Today’s CME Bitcoin Futures Contract Launch

Following last week's 'successful' launch of Cboe Bitcoin futures, CME will begin trading of their own 'more institutional' Bitcoin futures contract today. Here are some of the differences between the products to be offered by the exchange operators. CONTRACT UNIT The Cboe Bitcoin Futures Contract will use the ticker XBT and will equal one bitcoin. […]

World’s Second Largest Clothing Retailer Crashes Most In 16 Years

Shares of Stockholm-based Hennes & Mauritz, better known as H&M, the world’s second largest clothing retailer after Inditex (owner of Zara), crashed 14.8% after reporting an unexpected drop in fiscal 4Q 2017 sales. Sales missed both consensus and company estimates with the resulting fall in H&M’s share price was the steepest intra-day decline since 11 […]

Stocks Rebound From “Bama Shock”, All Eyes On Yellen’s Last Rate Hike

After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP’s Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: Yellen’s Swan Song And Final Rate Hike; Draghi’s Silence, US Inflation

After last week’s payrolls report, the year is starting to wind down for economic events and capital markets, but not before one last hurrah for central banks: indeed, it is a very busy week dominated by central bank meetings for the FOMC, ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges Bank. We will also observe the controversial Alabama […]

US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

U.S. equity index futures pointed to early gains and fresh record highs, following Asian markets higher, as European shares were mixed and oil was little changed, although it is unclear if anyone noticed with bitcoin stealing the spotlight, after futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on Cboe Global Markets. In early trading, European stocks struggled […]