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China Beige Book Warns Economic Slowdown Has Begun

When it comes to the global economy, few things matter as much as China, the trajectory of its economy and especially the pace and impulse of its credit creation, which is ironic because virtually all data coming out of China is fabricated and manipulated, and thoroughly untrustworthy, either on purpose or “by accident.” The latest […]


Lacy Hunt On The Unintended Consequences Of Federal Reserve Policies

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.themaven.net/mishtalk, The Financial Repression Authority interviewed Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Management on Fed policies. The interview below first appeared on the FRA website along with a video. The emphasis in italics is mine. FRA: Hi, welcome to FRA’s Roundtable Insight. Today, we have Dr. Lacy Hunt. He’s an […]


Warren Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed a Major Warning

It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). What about the economy? Warren Buffett once famously stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market […]


One Bank Is Unsure If Any Humans Still Trade Stocks In Japan, Or Have All Moved To Bitcoin

While the wholesale disappearance of retail traders from stock markets is hardly a novel observation, it has taken on a whole new meaning in Japan, where the lack of carbon-based investors has prompted Deutsche Bank to ask if “Japan’s stocks are still traded at all by humans.” As Deutsche strategist Masao Muraki writes, since the […]


Bubble Watch: The Fed KNOWS We’re in a 1999-Type Mania…

The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last. This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018. It is […]


Goldnomics Podcast – Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin in 2018. Everything Bubble Bursts?

Goldnomics Podcast – Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin in 2018. Everything Bubble Bursts?  Click here to listen to podcast In this our first GoldNomics podcast we take a look at the major financial market themes of 2017 and delve into the outlook in 2018. GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood and GoldCore’s Research Director and world renowned precious metals […]


US Consumers Tap Out: Personal Savings Rate Plunges To 10 Year Low While Americans Splurge

The latest confirmation that the US consumer is now effectively tapped out came moments ago when the Dept of Commerce reported that in November, Personal Income rose by a lower than expected 0.3% (exp. 0.4%), while US consumers continued to splurge at an accelerated rate, with personal spending rising 0.6%, above the 0.5% expected, as […]


What The Yield Curve Says About The Timing Of The Next Recession

While most financial professionals would enjoy nothing more than to trade bitcoin all day long – after all it only goes up in the long run (for now), while bringing insane volatility with it – the reality for most is that they are confined to such boring, established legacy instruments as Treasurys, which rarely have […]


The Output Gap Is Screaming For The End Of The Business Cycle

Via TimeMoney.com, Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to predict the future, […]


Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s A Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com, We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually […]


Why We Should Worry About China

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute, Many of our readers might remember the late 80s. There were hundreds of movies, songs and books about the inevitable Japanese economic invasion. The ones of you that did not live that period can see that it did not happen. Why? Because the Japanese growth miracle was […]


Four Charts Prove The ‘Economic Recovery’ Is Just A Fed-Induced Entitlement Program For The Wealthy

“Economic recovery” in America no longer means what it used to mean.  Historically “economic recovery” was largely characterized by job and wage growth, distributed across the income spectrum, and a rebound in GDP growth to north of ~3%-5%.  These days, the notion of “economic recovery” has been hijacked by the Fed and bastardized in such […]


Bond Markets Really Are Signalling A Slowdown

Authored by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji via Bloomberg.com, Analysts shouldn’t dismiss the yield curve’s message just because inflation expectations have been declining in recent years.   When it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a […]


Swedish Housing Bubble Pops As Stockholm Apartment Prices Crash Most Since June 2009

Even though Sweden’s property bubble is not the longest running (that accolade goes to Australia at 55 years), it is probably the world’s biggest with prices up roughly 6-fold since starting its meteoric rise in 1995. Of course, as we noted last month when the SEB’s housing price indicator, which measures the difference between those […]


Stockman Slams “Bubble Finance And The Era of No-See-Um Recessions”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Today's single most dangerous Wall Street meme is that there is no risk of a stock market crash because there is no recession in sight. But that proposition is dead wrong because it's a relic of your grandfather's economy. That is, a reasonably functioning capitalist order in which the […]