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The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!! Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps – the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps – the biggest-single-day flattening […]

Where European Populism Will Be Strongest In 2018

While the establishment may breathe a sigh of relief looking back at political developments and events in Europe – which was spared some of the supposedly “worst-case scenarios” including a Marine le Pen presidency, a Merkel loss and a Geert Wilders victory – in 2017, any victory laps will have to be indefinitely postponed because […]

Citi’s “What If?” Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 “What If” scenarios that didn’t make it into the Citi Credit team’s (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi’s “base case” was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank’s credit team […]

Tory Power Base Takes Another Hit After Theresa May’s Right Hand Man Fired Over Pornography

Tory (lack of) power-base takes another hit. The UK prime minister’s right hand man Damian Green has been fired from his post based on the allegations over pornography usage. In an ongoing saga Damian Green was “asked to quit” after he made “inaccurate and misleading” statements over what he knew about claims pornography was found […]

Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]

Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again… Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again […]

Merkel’s Last Stand – Article 7 For Poland

Authored by Tom Luongo, As she fights for her political life Soon-to-be-ex-Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel will go down swinging against her stiffest political opponents in the European Union, the Poles. Merkel and French President Emmanual Macron publicly agreed to back Article 7 proceedings against Poland for refusing to comply with EU immigration quotas and […]

Global Stocks Roar To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Global stocks and US equity futures roared upward to new record highs to start the second-to-last week of the year, boosted by optimism over a Republican agreement on the shape of U.S. tax cuts aimed at lifting growth; incidentally this is the 6th consecutive day that the “tax bill” has been priced in by the […]

Who Ya Gonna Fight? Landmark Treaty Signed To Create EU Army

EU leaders formerly endorsed the harmless sounding Permanent Structured Cooperation, or PESCO, pact on Thursday evening in Brussels. After the shock of Brexit, the goal of defence integration was revived by former military foes, Germany and France, supported by Italy and Spain, in a show of EU unity. A similar proposal was blocked by the […]

Brexit Moves To Phase 2 – Sterling Slides As EU Warns Talks Will Be Far More Testing

Following the humiliation of losing the House of Commons vote on Friday, in which MP’s took the final say on the Brexit deal from the executive, UK Prime Minister was in Brussels as EU leaders gave approval for Brexit talks to move to phase 2. At a dinner last night, she was applauded by leaders […]

Bill Blain’s 2018 Outlook: “We Don’t Think 2018 Is Going To Be The End Of The World”

Via Bill Blain, It’s traditional to end the year with an outlook on what the next is likely to bring. We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new […]

Bill Blain: “I Have Never Seen So Many Extraordinary Events In One Year, And I’ve Been In Markets Since 1985!”

Via Bill Blain of Mint Partner, We don’t think 2018 is going to be the End of the World. There will be opportunities and mistakes. Winners and grinners, and more than a few losers. Sure, we’re looking forward to the new MiFID regime – isn’t everyone? (US Readers…..) Our broad brush picture is a continuation […]

European, Asian Stocks Slide But US Futures Rebound As Tax Deal Fears Ease

U.S. equity index futures point to a higher open, having rebounded some 10 points off session lows with the VIX stuck on the edge between single and double digits, while European and Asian shares decline as investors assess central banks’ shift toward tighter monetary policy and concern over tax overhaul ahead of final plan.  It […]

BoE Preview: “Should Be A Non-Event”

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, the BoE meeting due in minutes, should be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Here is some more courtesy of […]

Financial Times Survey: Banks’ Brexit Relocations By March 2019 Much Lower Than Feared

In the run-up to the recent agreement on phase I of Brexit, there was mixed news on the extent to which jobs in the City of London would be relocated to other European hubs, primarily Frankfurt. On one hand, we discussed the meeting between US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, and executives of JPM, Goldman, HSBC […]