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Twelve Days Of Christmas Fed’s QE Gave To Me – by Michael Carino, Greenwich Endeavors

On the 12th day of Christmas Fed’s QE Gave To Me: TWELVE Fed Districts Dancing ELEVEN Bubbles Bubbling – (11 – Crypto Currencies like the recently famous soon to infamous Bitcoin, Bonds (every one of them), Stocks, Intra-day leverage from high volume trading, Emerging Markets, Short Volatility Trades in a temporarily suppressed volatility environment, Liquidity […]


Its 2007 Redux – What Is Your Excuse This Time?

Here we go again, again.   The unemployment rate is at a historic low.  GDP is above 3% and with the recently enacted historic tax cuts, poised to go much higher.  Inflation is at the Federal Reserve’s target.  Housing starts and sales are booming and housing supply is at an all-time low.  Equities are hitting […]


The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate […]


Bitcoin Collapse, Equity ‘Flash Crash’, & The Fed Loses Control: Saxo’s ‘Outrageous Predictions’ For 2018

Via Saxo Bank: We’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sniffing out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 2017 was […]


What Is Behind China’s Bond Rout?

Until a modest dip in Chinese bond yields in the past two days, 10y CGB and 10y policy bank bond yields soared by 40bps and 70bps, respectively, over the last 2 months. In fact, Chinese government notes are headed for the worst selloff since 2013, with the 10-year yield surging 86bps this year to 3.92%, […]


China Deleveraging Hits Corporate Bonds As Cascade Effect Begins

Following the market lockdown during October’s Party Congress, many commentators were disturbed by the continued rise in Chinese government bond yields as we returned to “business as usual”, with the 10-year rising to 4%. At the beginning of this month, we discussed the sell-off (see “China: Shadow Bank Inflows Are Critical To Sustain The Ponzi…But […]


Some Non-Hyperbolic Junk Talk

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, If you are looking for some breathless post about the recent collapse of the junk and high-yield market over the past couple of weeks, then click somewhere else. I know it makes for exciting writing, but I won’t do it. There is already more than enough […]


Venezuela Officially Declared In Default

Today at 11am, the ISDA Determinations Committee sits down to decide whether an event of default has occurred due to the delayed principal payment on the Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, bond that matured Nov. 2, in the process triggering PDVSA (and perhaps Venezuela) CDS, and officially declaring Venezuela in default. We won’t have […]


Are “Happy Days” In Credit Over? According To BofA, Just One Thing Matters

Just one month ago, we showed a chart according to which the corporate bond spreads as tracked by the BofA/ML Corporate Master Index had tumbled to a level not seen since July 2007…   … while European high yield bonds have sunk below 2%, a head-scratching plunge in European “high” yields. As we have observed […]


If This Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds. Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back). Why would anyone want to lend these companies money? Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of […]


China’s Record Yield Curve Inversion “Spells Disaster”

Overnight we noted that the Chinese stock and bond markets 'turmoiled' as The National Congress came to an end and the forced repression of any weakness ended. Perhaps the most critical aspect of the moves was the push to new record levels of inversion in the Chinese sovereign bond curve. The Chinese yield curve has […]


The World’s Five Largest Bond Markets Are Syncing Up For Disaster

Another major economy is facing the ugly prospect of rising inflation. A central theme in our analysis of The Everything Bubble is that Central Bankers are focused on only one thing: maintaining the bull market in bonds at all costs. The reasons are as follows: 1)   Bonds are what finance the Government’s massive entitlement spending/ […]


Ray Dalio Warns Of “Significant” Bond Market Risk

Casting his vote in the ongoing debate of which is a bigger bubble, bonds or stocks, Bridgewater’s billionaire founder Ray Dalio, who has continued his whirlwind of media appearances in recent years, said that he sees a “significant amount of risk in the bond market” envisioning a growing risk to stability as the U.S. moves […]


A Nasty Head and Shoulders is Forming in Treasuries

While the financial media “high fives” over stocks hitting new high, something far more important is brewing in the bond markets. Bonds are the “smart money” in the financial system. The bond markets are not only much larger, but much more liquid than stocks. As such, when a major change begins to unfold, bonds usually […]


In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken… The Market Is”

Authored by Christopher Cole via Artemis Capital Management, Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and […]