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One Angry Trader Rages…”Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong…Go Wrong…Go Wrong”

As stocks do things they have never done before (in terms of gains and complacency), despite the "inexplicable" collapse in the yield curve (and slump in earnigs expectations), some, like former fund manager Richard Breslow, are growing frustrated with the farce. 2017 is on track to be the first 'perfect year' with 12 consecutive monthly […]


The 10 “Grey Swans” Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict “black swan” events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be […]


Switzerland Is Well-Prepared For Civilizational Collapse

Authord by Alex Tabarrok via MarginalRevolution.com, More than any other country, Switzerland’s ethos is centered around preparing for civilizational collapse. All around Switzerland, for example, one can find thousands of water fountains fed by natural springs. Zurich is famous for its 1200 fountains, some of them quite beautiful and ornate, but it’s the multiple small, […]


Tilt! Game Over…

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com, Anyone who’s ever played a pinball machine can attest to the fact that the player easily becomes wrapped up in it, to the point of the exclusion of all else happening around him. He hits the flippers rapidly, glancing up from time to time at his increasing score. It […]


Spitznagel Warns “Not All Risk Mitigation Is Created Equal”

Authored by Mark Spitznagel via PIOnline.com, There is a movement today among pension funds toward systemic risk mitigation – or "safe haven" – strategies. This makes great sense as a potential solution to the widespread underfunding problem. Many pension funds still haven't fully recovered from the crash of 2008, and can't afford another. Moreover, truly […]


Visualizing How Billionaire Investors Hedge Against Geopolitical Black Swans

Investors must always be comfortable with the idea that the market bears risk. Sometimes this risk flies under the radar and isn’t as pronounced as it probably should be. However, as Visual Capitalists's Jeff Desjardins notes, in other cases, the topic of risk can catapult to the forefront of discussion. There can be specific events […]


Critical Threats To 2017’s Bull Market – Part 1: Macro View

While the idea that anything could go wrong in global stock markets (especially US markets) is simply incomprehensible to most, Bloomberg's macro strategist Mark Cudmore dares to mention a few of the more prescient 'known unknowns' that could hamper the meltup for the rest of the year… Via Bloomberg, The base case for the last […]


“Black Swan” Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets… " Two quick things… The market has almost never been this expensive… As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak." And investors have never been more concerned about 'black […]


Could Market Complexity Trigger The Next Crash?

Complex systems are all around us. By one definition, a complex system is any system that features a large number of interacting components (agents, processes, etc.) whose aggregate activity is nonlinear (not derivable from the summations of the activity of individual components) and typically exhibits hierarchical self-organization under selective pressures. In today’s infographic from Meraglim we use […]


“Diiferent Type Of Bubble”: Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Submitted by Gary Evans of Macromon Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, just […]


“Different Type Of Bubble”: Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Submitted by Gary Evans of Macromon Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, just […]


Norway’s Big Fish Story

Submitted by Nick Kamran – Letters from Norway Decision Season With Parliamentary elections looming, more Norwegians than usual are asking themselves the tough questions. It is now apparent that the slump in oil is not a temporary one. What will the country do now? Time for the lottery winner, after receiving the last annuity, to […]


Now You Can Be As Cool (& Short Credit) As Carl Icahn

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I know all the cool kids like to quote Nassim Taleb and give dire warnings about the coming collapse of risk assets, but I must have too many years of playing Dungeons & Dragons because I just can’t seem to join their club. I don’t see […]